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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

B
The Euro is Down

The Euro is hovering at a very important level, and may disappoint some investors. On the one hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its interest rate by only a quarter of percent to 3.75%, which was expected. So, tighter lending conditions will have an additional impact on the economy. ECB’s deposit rate has been raised to 3.25%. This should support the growth of the Euro. On the other hand, the ECB has slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes after the inflation rate fell for the first time in 10 months. So, a rather cautious interest rate move by the ECB has pushed the single currency down.

As a first reaction, I would rather prefer to sell the single currency at 1.09.

106
Time to Buy: Smartsheet

Smartsheet is offering solutions for dynamic work and automation of workflows. Its stocks are 50% below their peak prices, and are affordable for investors who are looking for small cap companies. The major driver for the company is expanding remote working of teams that are located worldwide. The service is suitable for any company from any industry, and could be adjusted to any operational profile.

Smartsheet is actively attracting new big clients, as the number of clients that spend over $100,000 during the year increased by 55% compared to the previous year, and toped over 1000 firms. Average revenue per user also increased by 25% year-on-year. IT solutions is seen to be a very lucrative business, but Smartsheet demonstrates outstanding results as gross margin is over 80%, well above company’s peers.

The company’s management is targeting to increase revenues by 23-24% to $943-948 million in 2023. This looks impressive considering economic uncertainties. In other words, the decline of SMAR prices is an excellent opportunity to buy perspective stocks at low prices.

93
Time to Buy: Alteryx

Alteryx offers solutions for end-to-end automation of analysis and data science together with machine learning. The “most sexiest job of 21 century,” according to Harvard Business Review, didn’t helped AYX stocks to survive the recent correction, as they lost 80% of their max value.

Though, more and more companies understand the need for data science, not many are prepared to spend big money on data science team. And here comes Alteryx with its automated solutions to help the client to focus on their performance and to stop cleaning up the mess with documents. Netflix, Wells Fargo, Visa, Meta, and many others are among Alteryx clients.

The market valuation is currently at $65 billion, but it is expected to increase to $113 billion by 2025, while Alteryx has reported its annual revenues of $1 billion only. The company reported Q1 2023 revenue is up by 26% to $199.1 million, forecasting revenues up by 16% in 2023. The company’s management is working to improve margins and to cut staff by 11%. These cuts will be mostly related to sales and marketing employees. If the management succeeds in these efforts to improve margins, AYX stocks will have more reasons to recover.

85
Time to Buy: Meta

Meta stocks have added more than 100% since the beginning of 2023, but are still 40% off their peak prices. So, the recent rally should be considered as sustainable with a stopover at current levels. Meta stocks are indeed too cheap now for such a company despite fears over inflated spending on metaverse.

The company has reported Q1 2023 revenues at $28.65 billion, beating consensus by $990 million. The management forecasts $29.5-32.0 billion revenues for the Q2 2023, which is above the average analysts’ forecast of $29.5 billion. The macroeconomic background hasn’t changed for the better, meaning that Meta has at least partially solved its issues regarding Apple’s privacy policy, and boosted Reels revenues.

Meta could mitigate Reality Lab losses that are related to the metaverse, and return to the earlier pace of revenue increases. AI solutions may help revenues to recover. AI recommendation algorithms could help as their introduction increased user time spent on Instagram by 24% compared to the Q4 2022, while increasing monetisation of Reels and Facebook by 30% and 40% respectively. Staff cuts should have a positive effect on the company’s margins too.

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