新闻和分析

In Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves, a folk tale included to the One Thousand and One Nights collection of Arabic stories, the magical words "Khul ja sim sim", or ”Open, Sesame”, had the power to open the mouth of a cave containing a hidden and unbelievable riches inside. Now it seems that the AI-word has its own modern magic as a secret password to unlock a trove of resuming Alibaba stock rally. The Chinese-rooted e-commerce giant confirmed its plans for major AI investment at the moment when last quarter's revenue showed a solid rebound.

This was enough for Alibaba stock soaring by another 15% in the past week alone. Getting too close to the next symbolic landmark of $150 per piece on weekly charts made it possible to turn a mostly bullish sentiment to an immediate corrective step back of over 10% already in the very first hour of this Monday's regular trading for Alibaba's ADR after the opening bell on Wall Street. This warning sign is intended to remind the crowd of positive-minded investors of the former Alibaba stock movement, which has been actually stifled in early autumn 2024 after a two-week spike, not destined to reach $120. That time, Alibaba prices returned deep to the bottom around $80 before finding the strength to rise again only in the beginning of 2025. BABA has risen more than 60% since the recent Christmas time.

5 months ago I wrote that Chinese markets took heart, but this turned out to be a “premature truth”. And here is a lesson I need to learn so as not to set myself far-reaching goals to be celebrated too soon. However, I would not question the concept of a further step-by-step climbing for Alibaba shares, based on a rather successful response on its management's global claims and keeping in mind a great free space up to above $300, since this target perfectly corresponds to the peak values of 2020. Goals around $200 could come first, but approaching these kinds of distant targets may not happen in nearest months, or even this year, as proper pullbacks up to $115-$120 or so may occur on the way, which makes new purchases reasonable either with a corresponding retest of these lower levels, or with a clear breakthrough above a $150 resistance by any week's closing.

As to the world of correct words and numbers, "this quarter's results demonstrated substantial progress in our "user first, AI-driven" strategies and the re-accelerated growth of our core businesses," said Eddie Wu, CEO of Alibaba Group, after his company's sales rose 8% YoY in Chinese Yuans to RMB 280.15 billion, even slightly beating Wall Street pool estimates of RMB 277.03 billion. Alibaba's core businesses are Taobao and Tmall Group, which are directed to Chinese native customers and to Alibaba's clients abroad. Cutting prices in time and intensifying promotional offers was cited among factors, which allowed to revitalise consumer spending.

Just to offer you some more dry figures, the company's Cloud Intelligence group revenue grew by 13% YoY to RMB 31.74 billion, and so this AI-related product is maintaining its strong growth for the sixth straight quarter in a row which gives much of the current inspiration in the market. As an example, the facts that the company's cloud business was "much stronger than the Street" and its AI strategy "is heading into its next gear of growth" could deliver "an inflection point" to make Alibaba one of the winners "in the China AI Arms Race", according to Wedbush Securities. Again, Alibaba's international digital commerce segment surged 32% YoY to RMB 37.76 billion ($5.17 billion), hinting that cross-border business is striving for higher speeds.

Focus areas for further investing into AI may now include the sector implications of post-DeepSeek effective tools. As Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu mentioned, aiming to develop models that extend the boundaries of intelligence. He characterised the AI revolution as "the kind of opportunity for industry transformation that only comes around only once every few decades", and so that the company would invest more in AI and cloud computing "over the next three years than it had in the past decade", without a particular investment amount.

In contrast to the years of an alleged excommunication, the clear participation of Alibaba's co-founder Jack Ma in a meeting of enterprise leaders chaired by China's President Xi Jinping in February, as well as broadcasted pictures of Jack Ma shaking hands with the all-mighty Xi, also raised investor confidence in Alibaba. In the current wave of business stimulation in China, proximity to the ruling Communist Party matters, no less than to know by heart an "Open, Sesame" password.

Tron (TRX) is trading around $0.2452 this week, in line with the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.3% to $95,456. However, TRX is showing signs of further upside potential.

After dipping to $0.2000, Tron has rebounded and is once again testing the $0.2500 resistance level—its third attempt at a breakout. The token is also supported by the middle of its ascending channel, forming a strong technical setup that favours an upward move. Given these factors, breaking above $0.2500 appears to be a realistic short-term target.

Fundamentally, Tron has made strides in improving blockchain security. The T3 Financial Crime Unit has acknowledged the Tron Foundation’s efforts to reduce illicit transactions, which could strengthen the network’s reputation and adoption.

If Bitcoin remains above the key $92,000–95,000 support range, TRX is likely to continue its climb towards $0.3000.

Solana (SOL) is down 4.7% to $179.40 this week, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.7% to $98,470. The decline follows the LIBRA memecoin scandal, which has cast a shadow over Solana, the blockchain on which LIBRA was launched.

Argentine President Javier Milei is facing fraud allegations after promoting LIBRA, claiming it would fund small businesses and startups. Following his endorsement, LIBRA skyrocketed by 4,000% on February 14, only to collapse by 95% after early investors reportedly took $100 million in profits. Milei later deleted his post and admitted to making a mistake, with some opposition politicians even considering impeachment proceedings.

Nevertheless, Solana maintains strong institutional backing. Franklin Templeton actively uses Solana in its operations, while Bank of America has compared Solana’s speed and efficiency to Visa in the cryptocurrency space. The blockchain continues to see growing adoption, though its rapid expansion brings increased risks.

SOL briefly dropped 20% earlier this week, hitting a low of $160.82—the lowest since November 5, 2024, before the Trump-driven rally began. Prices have since recovered, but SOL must reclaim $175.00 to sustain a move toward its $225.00 target. Failure to do so could see a further decline to $125.00, which would likely present a strong buying opportunity.

The largest U.S. chain of hypermarkets, Walmart, shed new light on its inner sales projections. For its fiscal year of 2026, the particular numbers turned out to be somewhat lower compared to current estimates by the Wall Street analytical pool. The crowd responded by a nearly 8% plunge in the pre-market trading before the opening bell on February 20. Many investors may have thought they witnessed first signs of fading consumers' optimism. Yet, I personally do not believe this is a kind of fundamental trend reversal. Walmart's business has more than doubled over the past year, from about $50 to $105.30 at its new peak on February 14, with more than two-thirds of this rise being made in the last five months. Such steep climbs may easily face technical corrections under appropriate conditions, which occasion could immediately be considered as a great buying opportunity to enter the stock. The $90-a-piece support line formed a powerful pillar of the immediate post-Christmas rush. For me, the price area just above it plays the same role now.

What actually happened was that the fourth quarter of 2024 today revealed a very nice annual revenue growth of 4.1% (to reach the absolute record of $180.55 billion vs $179.85 in average expectations). This gave even up 5.3% in constant currency, with operating income rising at 8.3% (up $0.6 billion), or 9.4% in the so-called adjusted calculations. Walmart's EPS (equity per share) came out at $0.66, slightly better than $0.64 in average analyst pool forecast, which was only $0.01 lower than the best-ever quarterly indication of August 15, 2024. Global eCommerce sales by Walmart by 16%, reportedly led by "store fulfilled pickup & delivery" and U.S. marketplace. U.S. comparable sales, excluding gasoline, expanded by 4.9% in the last quarter, compared to previous expectations for a jump of 4.15%, helped by solid demand for obesity drugs. The chain's advertising business has increased by 29%, including 24% for Walmart Connect program in the U.S., which extends ad reach beyond Walmart's owned properties by displaying ads on a network of partner websites. In 2024, Walmart also raised its dividend payment to shareholders by 13% to $0.94 per share, which was the largest increase in over a decade. "We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an e-commerce business driven by faster delivery times," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement, adding that the chain continued to gain its market share. I see only good things in last year's report, despite all natural disasters in December, am I thinking in the wrong direction?

As to the current financial year, Walmart only projected consolidated net sales to rise within the range of 3% to 4%, against Wall Street egghead analyst suggestions of a 4% uptick, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. For Q1 2025, the store chain sees its adjusted per-share profit at $0.57 to $0.58, marginally less than Wall Street estimates as well, citing negative currency effects. If you can call this a weakness, then call it a weakness that Kylian Mbappe scored "only" three goals instead of using his possible four or five scoring chances for Real Madrid against Manchester City in the Champions League match last eve. I think we now have 3-1 in Walmart's favour and no investor should cry if the score is not 4-0. The result is great anyway, still giving Walmart a ticket to the next round of buying to follow the uptrend.

When offering every possible thing from retail goods to groceries, the clear progress of Walmart also serves as a bellwether for other U.S. consumer staples just a few days after the recent set of retail sales data has shown only a monthly decline, very typical for February. But I still see Walmart and Costco as leaders in which it makes good sense to invest more than other stocks in the segment.