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Notizie e analisi

Leggi le notizie dai mercati a cura dei membri della nostra community

09.01.2025

VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025

Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

16.01.2025

Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

14.01.2025

Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

20.01.2025

Investment Banks Are Ahead of Lenders

An advance guard of the U.S. banking segment has reported for the ending quarter of 2024 ahead of the corporate earnings season's major chapters, which are still coming in and are supposed to make an overall positive contribution. But what's interesting is, the variety of lending institutions performed a solid organic growth in terms of both revenue and pure income, while the essentially investment giants like Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (BLK) grew up on a much firmer foundation. There is an impression that well-organised asset management, based on proper contextual ad hoc and mid-term stock transactions, is still producing enhanced results when compared to the returns of somewhat shabby loan portfolios at still quite heavy interest rates.

A temporary increase in Blackrock market value was up to 6.5% at its highest intraday point on January 15, following its record ever $11.93 of equity per share (EPS) on an also absolutely highest number of $5.68 billion in quarterly sales. Blackrock's three-month achievements provided a 23.5% annual boost in EPS vs nearly14% expected at EPS of $11.06 per share, which was supposed in analyst pool projections in reputable news outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters. Many investment houses quickly adjusted their price target areas for Blackrock shares, while also keeping Outperform ratings on the stock. As an example, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) revised its price goal for Blackrock to $1,180, citing the investment bank's diversified inflows and global expansion growth initiatives which made the company favorably positioning in the eyes of analysts and investors alike. Blackrock is currently traded around $1000 per share.

However, the Goldman Sachs (GS) effect even surpassed the previous case, with an emergence of totally new peaks above $625 on GS charts, where the shares of this widely recognized investment giant had never been before. The weekly gain was more than 11.5% from $560 per share at the closing price on January 10. Goldman Sachs provided last quarter's EPS at $11.95 per share, beating a $8.12 consensus forecast, with its revenue achieving as high as $13.87 billion vs $12.15 billion previously estimated on average. This means that GS net revenues are up 7% YoY but its adjusted income soared by 54%, so that the firm maintains its clear leadership in global investment banking, including merge and acquisition advisory and wealth management services. Such a strong kind of resilience revived inner projections for EPS of $47.50 for fiscal year 2025 and $52.50 for fiscal year 2026. Isn't this a ready-made reason for targets above $650, or even $700 per share in the coming months, or at least before the end of 2025? By the way, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was freshly rewarded by an $80 million stock bonus to stay at the helm for another 5 years, and John Waldron, a chief operating officer who is seen by many as a successor to Solomon, who is 63 now, was also awarded with his retention bonus of the same $80 million in restricted stock. However, the huge crowd of Goldman Sachs investors on Wall Street is hardly feeling offended or sad either, given the stock's crazy growth pace by the banking segment's standards.

The very fact that a cycle of lower borrowing rates has started in 2024 on both sides of the pond is helping the banking environment tremendously, which may in turn expand into a real business so soon, but the process may be happening more slowly than many Wall Street inhabitants would like to see due to a pause in the dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators. Wells Fargo (WFC), which also has an increasingly advanced investment focus among its recovering lending business, gained more than 8% since last week's earnings' report, coming very close to all-time peaks around $78 per share. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) also broke their previous price records, but gained within 5% and 7%, while the Bank of America (BAC) failed to add more than 2% for the reporting week, while its quarterly profits and sales were high but still within its previous lofty standards. The smaller part of investment business versus the credit component for the last three banks mentioned above seems like a reasonable justification for this tendency.

Bash

12.08.2025

Micron Could Rise Into September

Micron Technology surprised Wall Street by sharing its very positive business forecast on August 11, even though its next quarterly report is scheduled only on September 25. The fundamentals and the technical patterns on daily, weekly and monthly charts look like the semiconductor maker could see steady growth until then. I would say that a retest over $150 is inevitable, even assuming some new price records for Micron share price during this short period.

Micron is no more a skunk at the tech garden party (as I once described its then-sad and corrective mood before Christmas). It noticeably perked up back already in early summer, when Micron share price quickly recovered to the $120+ area as the company was going to release its record-ever quarter in terms of both profit and sales. On June 25, the actual figures of $1.91 per share on revenue of $9.3 billion more than justified and even exceeded the crowd's average expectations of $1.59 per share on $8.85 billion. However, the forward guidance by Micron's own managing team for the rest of the year were more or less cautious, and so a brave rally that time stopped at $130, followed by another month of sideways move. The price touched a new strong support around $105 on August 1, being rather flat or slightly rebounding right up to the present moment.

Micron shares have soared to knock at its technical resistance territory as the strong outlook has given markets the only one missing piece to make the whole bullish puzzle ready. Giving Micron a fair valuation looks natural once the company itself is no longer shying. It cited a surge in orders for Micron's high-bandwidth memory chips, thanks to their intensive data-processing capabilities. Other giant techs are scaling up their commitment to artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, which lead to growing demand to Micron's production, so that the company itself now officially expects increasing current quarterly sales up to $11.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which is much better compared to Micron's previously modest forecast of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Micron projected its next EPS reading at $2.85 per share, plus or minus $0.07, vs its earlier expectation of $2.50, plus or minus $0.15.

At the same time, they substantially raised adjusted gross margin inner projections from 42%, plus or minus 1%, to 44.5%, plus or minus 0.5%, due to improved pricing for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips. Marginality is just a potentially troubling point for the memory chip market, so updating forecasts in this particular field is very important. By a curious coincidence, Reuters just exclusively reported the same day that Nvidia's supplier SK Hynix said the market for specialized AI memory chips may grow on average as much as 30% per year until 2030.

Potentially large levies on chips imported into the US could damage the market growth but Donald Trump promised the tariff will not bite manufacturers inside the country or even those businesses who have committed to do so. Well, only two months ago Micron said it is going to expand its US investments by $30 billion, totalling $200 billion. So they seem to be safe from tariff attacks as well. My conclusion is that I see no reason not to invest in Micron now, even after its stock price jumped 4.5% above $124 a share at one intraday point and ended this Monday's regular session with a more than 3% daily surplus.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

11.08.2025

Tron Is Preparing for a Jump

Tron (TRX) is up 0.9% this week to $0.3410, trailing behind Bitcoin (BTC), which has gained 2.3% to $121,430. The broader market rally was bolstered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order permitting digital assets such as Bitcoin in 401k retirement plans—a move that opens a vast new pool of capital. The U.S. retirement market is valued at around $43 trillion, meaning even a 1% allocation would surpass the size of all existing crypto ETFs combined.

This policy shift has already injected fresh capital into the market, helping Bitcoin reach new all-time highs. Tron could follow suit in the coming days, targeting $0.3500, with a potential acceleration toward $0.4000 if that resistance breaks. Such levels may present a favourable window for profit-taking.

TRXUSD

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Rafael Quintana Martinez

08.08.2025

Monero Slumps amid Qubic Mining War

Monero (XMR) is down 11.9% this week to $266.50, significantly underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 1.9% to $116,543. The sharp drop in XMR is mainly linked to the ongoing Qubic-XMR mining conflict, which has sparked concerns over a potential 51% network hashrate takeover. Since these concerns surfaced in late July, Monero has shed 21% of its value.

Despite dipping to $256.4, which marks the midpoint of its current upward channel, XMR quickly rebounded suggesting resilience and the potential for a steeper recovery. If the support around $275.0 continues to hold, this could pave the way for a move higher, with an eventual target around $325.0.

XMRUSD

903

Bash

08.08.2025

Eli Lilly Seeks Brave Hands

A rare happy good luck! For anyone who has long been looking for a high-quality US asset with at least $500 billion in market capitalization, but much cheaper than what people call a "fair price". Eli Lilly delivered a stunning second-quarter financial performance, by far shattering all its previous records once again and beating already too hot and much elevated consensus estimates for the profitability of its best-selling weight-loss drug by 12.88%. But its stock price suddenly plunged nearly 15% due to a quite controversial clinical miss of a new oral pill. I don't tell you to grab the first price found on the street tomorrow morning, but a procrastinating delay for too long would be even a bigger mistake.

Eli Lilly was a measly $30 shy of hitting $1,000 at its 2024 peaking price and about $80 distance short of touching that same milestone in 2025. And it's currently trading below $650, which means another $300 of headroom for nearly 50% of the future recovery potential. Perhaps the fortune will grant us an even lower price, but for me it's very unlikely that the asset may fall below $600 for more than a day. Here are some major details, and you draw your own conclusions.

To be very brief, the company's main profit has so far been made by anti-diabetic and weight loss products under the Zepbound and Mounjaro brands, and they have broken all previous records and average expectations once again. Those key medications are in the forms of injections. Together, they provided sales that grew to $10.40 billion, with Mounjaro generating $5.20 billion (up 68% YoY) and Zepbound contributing $3.38 billion (up 172% YoY). This is a unique achievement. No competitors like NovoNordisk, whose drugs reportedly and allegedly have unacceptable side effects like vision damage, can even come close to Eli Lilly's current achievement. Its EPS (earnings per share) jumped 92% YoY to $6.29 against $3.92 in the same period of 2024 and the previous record of $5.32 in Q4 2024. Beside that, Lilly raised its full-year sales guidance by another $1.5 billion to a higher range of $60 billion to $62 billion, also raising its inner profit expectations to $20.85-$22.10 per share.

This is all on the positive side. So what else could the market want? First, a few months ago the crowd wound itself up with even higher expectations, which prevented the $1000 from being taken by storm and brought about a rollback and correction phase. However, that would be only half the self-made trouble for too brave investing minds. And the other half of the same trouble is that Eli Lilly has vowed to make and promote a very effective pill so that patients do not have to take injections. And the market has too high hopes for that pill. Morgan Stanley experts, for example, estimated the financial effect of the pill revenue at an extra $40 billion each year by 2033. But the most recent weight loss pill trial effect was modest compared to high market bets. In particular, the last phase of a clinical trial led the group of patients to lose an average weight of 12.4% (27.3 pounds) over 72 weeks. 59.6% of all participants lost at least 10% of their corresponding body weight and 39.6% lost even 15% or more. Despite this being statistically significant, specialists expected even higher results.I don't know what you'll say, but for me, I'd rather swallow one pill a day than inject myself in the stomach or anywhere else, even if the pills would burn off my weight more slowly. The company also emphasized that its innovative pill (named orforglipron) still represents a significant advancement as a "once-daily oral therapy that could support early intervention and long-term obesity management, though the commercial opportunity may be more limited than originally anticipated".

Well, you can do whatever you want, but next week I’m personally buying a few shares of Eli Lilly for my mostly tech portfolio, without looking at the particular share price at all. And if it suddenly falls below $600 for a while, then I’ll buy the same amount more of Eli Lilly and I'll wait for the $950 or higher target as long as it takes. A typical situation for brave hands. Remember when CrowdStrike shares nearly collapsed because of a stupid computer glitch that "buried" Windows on 19 July 2024. There was a huge price discount, with CRWD share price plunging to $200 per share. So what? Less than a year passed, and CrowdStrike shares were breaking new records above $500, as if nothing had happened. The same will happen with Eli Lilly.

LLY

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