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24.11.2022

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

24.11.2022

Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

MetadoroIn-house analytics

11.10.2024

Cruise Operators Are Back Onto the Fairway

The group of a few cruise stocks suddenly made a tremendous run up in their market values. The bullish momentum quickly intensified into a double-digit percentage growth in previously unwanted shares of Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), following an upgrade from Citi analysts to Buy from Neutral and more confident and detailed comments by Stifel wealth management and investment banking company on Carnival Corporation (CCL) prospects. Cruise traffic in September was "among the best on record", as North Americans kept spending more money on experiences and services than on discretionary goods, which led to record booking rates for affordable cruise voyages, City noted. "Norwegian's shift in strategy from quality at all costs to a more balanced yield/cost relationship gives us confidence that the considerable pricing power and the company's increased focus on costs 'can't help but bear fruit'," Citi said in a client's note, when raising its price targets on Norwegian Cruise to $30 from $20, Royal Caribbean to $253 from $204 and Carnival to $28 from $25, which was also more than 20% above its price level at the moment.

Carnival Corporation added 13.33% for the first four trading sessions of the week to cross an 18-month-long technical border at $20 per share. Potentially, this escapade action paves the way for a jump to the area above $27, where the peaks of September 2021 are waiting, if we consider CCL earnings beat with EPS (earnings per share) of $1.27 vs $1.17 in consensus estimates on $7.89 billion sales in the company's public release only two weeks ago. A great step forward, compared to near-zero profits during the previous three quarters on revenue within a 26.7% to 31.5% lower range between $5.4 billion to $5.78 billion. Carnival's actually improving financial performance amid elevated costs was not properly appreciated so far. Moving closer to the specifics of the business, its newest sailing next-generation cruise ship, the Sun Princess, is built in 2024 and ready for new destinations like Celebration Key, which helps to achieve higher occupancy.

Meanwhile, Stifel highlighted even better hopes for Carnival. When investigating its current bookings dynamics for 2025 and early 2026, with "no signs of a slowdown in demand or spending" for sea-based vacations despite more expensive tickets, they see a space for the cruise company's EPS to exceed $2.00 next year. So, the stock still looks currently undervalued to represent a chance for good mid-term investment, especially since its Royal Caribbean (RCL) rival is now soaring more than 40% higher than its pre-coronavirus peaking prices after rising another 5% for the last several days. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Lines still keep a 60% discount in market value after pricing erosion since 2020.

William Blair, a global boutique with expertise in investment banking, issued an Outperform rating on the Carnival stock. Barclays and Goldman Sachs also raised their price targets for the cruise operators on "solid KPIs" (key performance indicators), while mentioning fuel prices among major risks for the segment. Cruise operators may grow capacity at a healthy 6% annual clip over the next three years, according to Citi. Some view that recent jumps in cruise stocks could be a "catch-up trade", yet City feels that growth in the segment has "more longevity".

CCL

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

10.10.2024

EOS Seen Recovering to $0.5500

EOS is down 2.5% this week, trading at $0.4600, mirroring Bitcoin's (BTC) 1.8% decline to $61,048. EOS is hovering near a key 10-week support level. Should prices fall below $0.4500, there is a risk of a further decline toward $0.3000. However, the baseline scenario suggests a recovery toward $0.5000-0.5500, provided that Bitcoin stages a solid rally.

EOSUSD

Bash

10.10.2024

Price Targets for Netflix Are Higher

As a long-time advocate of holding Netflix stock until the asset reaches my minimal target of $800 at least, I also pointed out that my favourite streaming giant was strongly underestimated in mid-summer. I plotted an almost perfect trajectory of the further price moves, using a coloured wide arrow on Netflix chart to highlight a possible bottom area around $600, followed by a big bounce above $675. An actual low at $587 per share was indicated in the first week of August, when many mega caps were submerged by a broad retracement in the tech segment. I am happy to turn your kind attention to Netflix again, as it surges to new historical highs, now above $728.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on Netflix stock this week again, keeping its price target of $750, underlining multi-year free cash flow increase and projecting sales growth of 12% and operating income growth of 18% for the years 2025 and 2026 due to "higher profit margins and disciplined cash content management", and continuous operating margin expansion, even as the company keeps investing in diverse content library, advertising, and gaming initiatives. TD Cowen's investment management division freshly raised its price target for Netflix to $820 with a Buy rating, citing an anticipated increase in paid net member additions and its rising potential for improved monetization, predicting that advertising may represent 13% of Netflix's total revenue in 5 years. Piper Sandler upgraded Netflix stock from Neutral to Overweight, and the most sceptical Barclays downgraded the firm from Equalweight to Underweight, which still means more price increase around the corner.

The robust performance crowns a more than 90% increase in the market value of Netflix for the previous 12 months, including a 21.3% contribution when counting from the latter milestone of $600. The fundamental basis under the trend lies in raising the company's inner forecast on its revenue growth for the whole year of 2024 from solid 14% to even better 14.5%, with expectations of quarterly profits well above $5 per share in next week's announcement on October 17, compared to $4.88 in Q2 2024 and $3.73 in the same season of 2023. The net profit in April-June of 2024 increased by 44% to $2.15 billion from $1.49 billion only one year before, because of getting more money from legalised password sharing procedures. Even if Netflix's trek up the hill would not be so straight after the night of October 17th (in the way it was interrupted by waves of partial profit-taking in April and July), I bet that the road will gradually lead it up to the top anyway.

Reducing the woke message voice in new Netflix shows helped to attract more viewers outside the US and Europe. As of the end of June, Netflix had 227.65 million paid subscribers all over the world vs nearly 154 million customers of its major Disney+ rival. While waiting for the next season of Avatar: The Last Airbender blockbuster, the family audience enjoys the Garfield Movie. After making its theatrical debut in May, a new part of the world-famous story of a Monday-hating and lasagne-loving indoor cat was premiered on Netflix as part of the streamer's exclusive "pay 1 window" rights deal with Sony Pictures. Potential price hike for loyal viewers in 2025 or 2026 may offer new hopes for shareholders in the financial sense. Again, JPMorgan is mentioning high user engagement averaging around two hours per day and Netflix' world dominance in a potential of tapping into the over 500 million global connected TV households outside of Russia and China".

NFLX

Rafael Quintana Martinez

09.10.2024

ETC Is Struggling to Build Its Upside Momentum

Ethereum Classic (ETC) is down 1.5% this week, trading at $18.36 and underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading neutrally at $62,100. ETC has been in a sideways trend for the past two months, repeatedly attempting to break through the key resistance level of $20.00. However, both previous efforts to climb above this resistance were unsuccessful.

A third attempt to break the trend resistance matching with horizontal resistance at $20.00 appears likely in December. The ongoing "Uptober" trend, traditionally marked by strong crypto market performance, could provide the necessary momentum for a broader market rally, potentially accelerating ETC’s push toward the $20.00 mark this month. A breakout above this level could set the stage for a more sustained upside move.

ETCUSD