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10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

B
Target Fell Down On Positive Earnings

Investors into the U.S. mass-market retailer Target need to have a lot of patience. Today it has reported quarterly profit of $2.41 per share, $0.17 better than consensus estimate of $2.24 and 30% above the previous three-month indication, which came out at $1.85 to send the popular chain's stock price into a tailspin on November 20. Sales has been improved to $30.9 billion, compared to $25.2 on average within the recent three reporting cycles. The expert polls predicted $30.65 billion. All current figures are encouraging, but this hasn't helped yet to form a U-turn point on charts. Instead, Target shares lost another 5% of their market value in the very first hour after the opening bell.

Target has not traded below $115 since November 2023, when it just launched its stratospheric flight above $180. It goes without saying that here I made this hint or reference for a particular reason. Perhaps the markets now believe more in a concept of cautious spending, or an additional retail profit squeezing because of Trump tariffs, or the crowd is maybe just too inertial. I believe in good things, but in a delayed mode. Fast climbing could be repeated, it's just a question of when and where to start it. We will be able to sing "Here Comes the Sun", but a bit later, as Target CEOs shared their inner expectations of comparable sales to be "in a range around flat" in the nearest months. Bloomberg analyst pool hoped for an uptick of 1.7%, as an example.

This coincided with Walmart bellwether warnings for the year, which cited still limited demand for the non-essential categories of goods like electronics and home furnishings, the segment, which is not critical for Walmart but makes up two-thirds of Target’s sales. Besides, prices for seasonal produce such as avocados are going to rise due to 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico, Target’s chief executive officer Brian Cornell told CNBC. Last month’s sales dip and ongoing uncertainty around the consumer spending under persisting borrowing costs, as well as tariffs uncertainty and "the expected timing of certain costs within the fiscal year", pushed Target management to admit "meaningful" year-on-year profit pressures in the current quarter but "relative to the remainder of the year", even though they confirmed "record" performance around Valentines Day. As to apparel sales, it could go higher when warmer weather in the U.S. will appear around Easter holidays (April 20 this year).Target sees its equity per share in the financial year of 2025 within an $8.80-$9.80 range while the analyst pool estimated the average value at $8.70.

All in all, they seem to believe in tomorrow as much as they believed in yesterday, but they don't rely too much on today. It looks like the price could fall even deeper, I wouldn't even rule out double-digit figures for Target shares at some point, but that would be a reason to buy in full. But I also feel it's too early to make those brave steps now.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Harmony Could Dive Further amid Overall Nervousness in the Crypto Market

Harmony (ONE) is down 21.1% this week to $0.01277, following Bitcoin (BTC), which dropped 11.0% to $83,900. The broader crypto market briefly rallied on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the long-awaited U.S. strategic crypto reserve. However, his decision to impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China on Tuesday erased most of the gains.

ONE surged above $0.01500 on Sunday but failed to maintain this key level. Technically, prices are now being pulled toward $0.01000, with temporary support from the ascending channel. However, sustained market pressure could push prices even lower in the near term.

808
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Merck Is Seen Up

Merck (MRK) failed to break out of its downtrend after a weak earnings report missed Wall Street expectations, pushing shares down 17.8% to $81.62 over 10 days. However, the stock quickly rebounded from downtrend support and is now attempting a second breakout. MRK appears attractive, especially as Merck Director Inge Thulin recently purchased $249,999 worth of stock at $88.25. Prices have risen slightly, but from a technical standpoint, the setup for long trades looks safer. An entry point at $90.50–93.50, with targets at $105.00 and a stop-loss below $80.50, could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity. A successful breakout above resistance may confirm a trend reversal, supporting further upside momentum.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
New Crypto Rally Will Keep Loopring Above $0.1000

Loopring (LRC) is down 7.3% this week to $0.1229, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is declining by 2.1% to $92,343 after a 9.1% surge on Sunday. The latest rally was sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post, suggesting that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, and Cardano will form a U.S. strategic crypto reserve. Cardano soared 70% in a single day on the news before the market retreated as investors awaited further details.

LRC climbed 9.3% to $0.1327 on Sunday but erased most gains the next day. The nearest support sits at $0.1200, followed by $0.1000. While another wave of the crypto rally could stabilise prices above these levels, a significant surge remains unlikely.

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