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15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


12.05.2022
Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties. 

12.04.2024
CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

26.11.2024
Meta Could Score 18% in the Next Few Months

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has been trading sideways within the $550-600 range since late September, underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which has gained 6.0% during the same period.

While META shares remain within an ascending channel, they are currently resting at the support of the uptrend. Historically, each time the stock reached this level, it rebounded upwards by 15-18%. Consequently, the share price is likely to rise to $650-670 over the coming months. I plan to open a long trade at $550-570, targeting a potential upside of $185. A stop-loss could be placed below recent lows at $480.

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A Golden Opportunity in AMD and Mondelez

I felt quite reasonable to go ahead with fresh purchases of AMD and Mondelez stocks at nearly 5% and 3.5% discounted prices, respectively. The Wall Street crowd's negative response to the set of very convincing quarterly numbers gave many traders this chance which I considered as a golden opportunity, especially in case of the AMD rally, which I do not expect to be halted for too long. As for Google, I am planning to do the same trick, but a little later. I don't believe ad sales is a horror story, but some part of the crowd may believe and prefer to watch on the sidelines. Again, let's not forget that I still have a lot of Google stocks bought from a $125-127 area.

AMD dropped in today's pre-market to $162.66, which formed a 9.6% price gap vs its all-time highs above $180. However, the profit in Q4 gave $0.77 per share, exactly in line with expert consensus (which did not allow it to produce any wow effects), yet it was 10% up to the previous AMD own record number. In terms of quarterly revenue, the company announced $6.2 billion vs 6.13 billion of consensus estimates, not a big surplus in this context, but actually meaning a 10.7% YoY. If this is disappointing, then what could be called inspiration?

A supposedly sad fact was only that AMD expect next quarter's revenue at $5.4 billion, up or down by $300 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $5.73 billion. However, I prefer the company's own forecasts rather than expert heightened estimates, which may be sometimes not that accurate. Other AMD announcements still sound great, like a supposed supply of AI chips "well above" $2 billion in 2024, compared to last quarter's AI chip sales of $400 million. AMD forecast is Q1 2024 margin of about 52%, compared with the expert estimates of about 51.7%. "Demand for our high-performance data centre product portfolio continues to accelerate, to deliver strong annual growth in what is an incredibly exciting time as AI re-shapes virtually every part of the computing market," AMD CEO Lisa Su commented, and these are all direct evidences of the segment's strength from the second largest AI chip maker of the world in the AI epoch. I see only fringe concerns on the other scale.

Besides, I preferred to use a chance to buy shares of Mondelez (MDLZ) chocolate monster factory, as soon as the market gave me a good entering price below $74.5 per share in the first minutes after the open bell. That was not because I like honey and almond Toblerone and Belvita cookies (though, this is true), but due to actually strong quarterly numbers. A partial drop in the so-called "organic" sales means in practice only that 5% less of some goods from the enormous line-up of Mondelez goodies were sold for 7% higher price. That's not so bad, in terms of logistics, if the company managed to make more money from less chocolate bars or crackers sold. I don't think that people addicted to those cookies or chocolate (to the extent that your humble servant is addicted) would ruin their breakfast mood for the whole day to save mere pennies. Bet, they will not do it. I still see the target price of at least around $78.5 or even $80 for Mondelez, which may give me from 5% to 7.5% on invested capital.

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Stocks to Pick Up on Dips: Mondelez

The multinational confectionery manufacturer of Milka, Côte d'Or, Toblerone and Cadbury chocolate, as well as Barny bears, Belvita and Oreo cookies, lost nearly 4% of its market caps overnight, despite the freshly released quarterly numbers, which confirmed its continues financial growth in terms of both sales and profits. Its EPS (equity per share) was $0.84 in the Christmas quarter vs $0.78 on average market expectations, 2.5% QoQ and 15% YoY, on record revenue of $9.32 billion.

The crowd and some experts "blamed" Mondelez results in excessive contribution from price hikes, which logically led organic (physical) sales volumes to a 0.4% in the quarter. In particular, organic sales volume in North America saw a 5.5% decline, down from a 4.6% rise in Q3, to follow the price growth by 7.4% in the region. Further demand expansion could be limited due to cash-strapped consumers as many households were battered by inflation pressure, trying to cut back spending and save some extra money. Surely, many families do it, but the scale of the potential problem could be exaggerated when one applies it to crackers for a healthy breakfast and some chocolate for an afternoon tea and children.

Nevertheless, lower volumes in units provide higher efficiency in terms of money, thanks to price factor contribution, so that the company's profit margin of 37.3% exceeded consensus estimates of 36.7%, even though it declined from 38.7% in Q3. Net revenue growth is at 7.1%. We feel that the current situation does not look so severe to justify complete nullifying of the Mondelez share price rise in January. Mondelez marketers know what they are doing when raising prices for the company's target audience. A temporary downturn in the company's value is likely to be changed by another wave of recovery, and the current discount in the stock's price may soon be attractive for a new "generation" of bullish bets.

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Stocks to Pick Up on Dips: Google

The share price of Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) lost nearly 6.5% after another solid portion of its quarterly earnings. This correction has followed disappointing ad segment revenues. The real question is how much it is justified. Google advertising numbers are now 11% higher YoY. The company posted $59 billion of ad revenue in the ending quarter of 2022, and it managed to climb to a record at $65.52 billion for the Q4 2023. The only troubling point is that the current great achievements are slightly shying away from preliminary expert consensus estimates of $66.1 billion, according to LSEG data. We strongly believe that's the right time to say that this is not the fault of Google. Thus, we continue with our classical Buy & Hold view as applied to this particular investment opportunity. The same pool of experts paraded their disappointment at the end of October when all the details of the Q3 report were nearly perfect, except a little bit lower than expected growth in the cloud segment. That was enough for GOOGL to dive from the area of $140 to test much deeper levels around $120 in just three days, yet the further full recovery took less than one month to lead the price to new all-time highs at $153.50 within a couple of months. Thus, we would bet for history to repeat.

"[O]ngoing strength in Search and the growing contribution from YouTube and Cloud. Each of these is already benefiting from our AI investments and innovation," the company CEOs commented on the numbers, as Google Search segment rose by 13%, YouTube added more than 15.5%, and Google Cloud was up 26% YoY. Some lower yet still great advertising sales should not overshadow other results of Google's artificial intelligence and the cloud expansion efforts.

Meanwhile, overall revenue of Google in Q4 reached its new historical high of $86.3 billion vs average estimates of $85.3 billion, while quarterly EPS (equity per share) also set a new record at $1.64 vs $1.59 of consensus estimates, against $1.55 in Q3, $1.44 in Q2 and $1.05 in Q4 2022. The growth corresponds to the profit rise by 14% for the last two quarters and a 56% jump YoY. This looks more than enough for our full satisfaction with the latest business results.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
CNE is Losing Momentum

Coin 98 (CNE) has added 1.0% to reach $0.2320 this week. The increase was even more pronounced on Tuesday, with the altcoin adding 7.0% to reach $0.2454, marking its highest point in the last 10 days. Despite this recent positive movement, the altcoin has encountered challenges, dropping to the $0.2000 support level three times since the start of January, with subsequent strong recoveries. However, the latest recovery, occurring during the week ending on January 30, saw only a 20% improvement, and this recovery has diminished to 12% by the current moment. This trend might be signaling bearish sentiment for the altcoin.

CNE is currently near the support of the uptrend at $0.2150, which could act as a stabilizing force against potential downward pressure toward $0.2000. Nevertheless, the altcoin appears to be weakening without any apparent fundamental reasons supporting it. If the broader sentiment in the crypto market deteriorates, CNE may face the risk of a swift decline below $0.2000.

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