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15.09.2022

Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016.

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.

26.04.2023

Diversification Inside Tech Sector: Taiwan Semiconductor

TMS is the most valuable semiconductor producer in the world. Its stock went down by 40% during the recent market correction, and rebounded slightly after a strong Q1 2023 earnings report. The company reported an operational margin at 45.5% as production of 5 nm and 7 nm chips is increasing. The company continues to generate profit despite decreasing demand for personal computers after surging during the pandemic in 2020-2021. Its financials are looking much stronger than its major peer Intel. In the worst-case scenario TSM’s operational margin is expected to decline to 40%, while Intel is expected to deliver a 39% operational margin with a negative net cash flow in Q1 2023. Taiwan Semiconductor is planning to spent between $32 billion to $36 billion on CAPEX this year, while Intel has cut CAPEX to $20 billion despite being 30% co-funded by the U.S. government. On the negative side, the company is quite vulnerable to geopolitical risks as tensions between China and Taiwan are mounting. Although, it is hard to believe that Beijing will take the island by force, these threats could not be discounted. China is building its image as a global peacemaker while promoting its roadmap to establish peace between Russia and Ukraine, and the recent China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Economic ambitions of China are also a major hurdle for a military solution of the long-lasting conflict as the destruction of the chip production facilities of TSM will make such military operations pointless in the economic sense. In other words, TSM stocks may interest very optimistic investors that are seeking extra profit amid recovering demand for chips in the second half of` 2023.

16.06.2022

Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

04.08.2022

Ethereum’s Most Important Update

ETH is a native token for the Ethereum blockchain and is one of the two most reliable digital assets in the market along with Bitcoin. Ethereum is the first platform that became a hub for thousands of blockchain apps and other digital solutions. The recovery of ETH prices to November 2021 peaks at $4,900 would bring investors 190% profit.

Second layer solutions (Layer2) were introduced to improve stability and effectiveness of the Ethereum blockchain. These are blockchain network add-ons that are added on top of the primary blockchain. The most popular add-ons are Arbitrum, Loopring, Immutable X, and Polygon that have recently partnered with Meta (Facebook owner). In other words, the Ethereum blockchain network has a much broader use than the native blockchain itself.

Ethereum developers promise to release a new Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus protocol in late 2022. This protocol will allow miners to stake tokens to a special deposit to mine blocks. Some networks within the Ethereum blockchain have moved to PoS protocol this summer, while others are expected to move to this protocol in the middle of September. This move will allow for the increase of processing capacity of the network to almost 100,000 transactions a second from the existing 30 transactions and lower commissions. This would also allow for ETH to switch to the deflation model when coins are algorithmically burned, while some coins would be removed from circulation as they would be blocked by staking - more than 13 million ETH or 10% of overall coins in circulation are blocked by staking. The problem is that coins are blocked for a long period of time and cannot be sold or exchanged for fiat currency.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

MetadoroIn-house analytics

01.04.2022

Three Stocks to Consider in April 2022: Alcoa

Market prices of aluminium futures rolled down from its March 7 highs by more than 12%. However, that peak was updated recently and was seen to be closer to a similar price pattern last autumn when short-term downward movements stopped within three weeks and the rally resumed in December. Mining companies and distributors in the commodity sector, fortunately, are far from being a linear function of the current changes in market prices of commodities but they are certainly taking advantage of persisting high prices.

The revenue of Alcoa for the Q4 2021 accounted for $3.34 billion. Its earnings of $2.5 per share is beating not only the average Wall Street expert forecasts of $1.93 but is also three times higher compared to Q1 2021, setting Alcoa’s all-time record. The next report is going to be released on April 14, which may increase investment appetites.

Alcoa shares have already set fresh price records twice in March, exceeding the January peak levels by 150%. However, the company that produces bauxite, alumina, and which globally distributes aluminium products may receive additional advantages from further fragmentation of the world's metal market after sanctions against Russia have definitely disrupted regular supplies and which are prompting spot and futures prices to rise.

1043

MetadoroIn-house analytics

01.04.2022

Three Stocks Thought to Climb in April 2022: Archer-Daniels-Midland

London wheat futures (LWBc1) rose to £307.50 per tonne by March 31. This is more than 35% higher than £226.5 recorded a couple of days before the start of military conflict in Ukraine. By the beginning of April wheat contracts were about 61.5% higher than in the same season a year ago. Barley was up by almost 44% during March 2022, while U.S. Corn Futures were almost a quarter more expensive than at the beginning of January.

In some parts of the world there are food shortages due to crop failures and supply disruptions following the corona crisis. Top level politicians, including speakers of the French agriculture ministry and U.S. President Joe Biden, are referring to this as direct consequences of war as well as consequences of economic and financial sanctions that were placed on Russia. Russia and Ukraine together account for up to a quarter of global wheat exports and almost a fifth of all corn deliveries, as well as 12% of the total calories supplied to the world market, according to Bloomberg. These two countries produce grain at lower prices than North America and Europe. In recent days, Russian authorities have also been actively discussing options like selling resources for national currency or even only to "friendly countries".

Anyway, even if food prices did partially stabilise, they probably remain high. One of the largest agricultural originations and processing companies, Archer-Daniels-Midland may further benefit from the situation. It offers sustainable nutrition for humans and animals, and it is also engaged in developing energy and bio-based alternatives. Big money may continue to lift the stock even though the ADM price is almost 40% higher compared to pre-Christmas dates. It could easily become the next hot stock. The company's cap now exceeds $50 billion, but it may become even higher before the release of the next quarterly report scheduled for May 3. ADM sales and earnings are growing at double-digit rates, as its one-year sales growth rate was 32.4%, and three-year equity per share (EPS) growth rate was above 19%. Nearly 9% of the short-term correction of the ADM shares which were priced down on March 25-29 have already met active demand, causing quotes to quickly recover more than half of the correction losses.

ADM

2740

MetadoroIn-house analytics

21.03.2022

Top-7 Anti-crisis Stocks at Wall Street: Walmart

The chains of discount stores in the United States like Walmart or Target look to be immune to inflation surges or even may win in consumers' attention when the prices are going up all over the country. Consumer inflation almost reached the level of 8% year-on-year in March. Financial regulators are not in a hurry to act decisively against it. Until recently, the Federal Reserve considered inflation as a transitional phenomenon. In such conditions, many households tend to save their money by visiting stores where they have a chance to buy cheaper. During the pandemic, Walmart has increased the number of its customers by offering free deliveries and a smart loyalty program. This process is only going faster in the face of rising retail prices for food and convenience goods.

Walmart's financial report on February 17 revealed an all-time record sales of more than $150 billion in the history of this chain of stores, plus an increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter and only a slight decrease in profit compared to the first half of 2021. A solid report helped Walmart stocks to gain almost 8% in the following four weeks, but the peak values of 2021 are still about 6% higher. So these stocks could be characterized as potential value stocks with at least enough free space above the current price to previous records. And with a tailwind, such kinds of stocks could be a rather stable anti-inflation instrument for investors.

WMT

2714

MetadoroIn-house analytics

21.03.2022

Top-7 Anti-crisis Stocks at Wall Street: Netflix

Both of the two world's most popular streaming services mentioned above, Netflix and Disney+, deserve their places among this set of successful and fast growing businesses, at least for better balance of risks and potential profits. Netflix stocks already lost more than half of its record value of $700 per share, reached in November 2021. However, the main reason was a logically irrational but fast downward movement in January after the company collected the maximum revenue of $7.7 billion in its history but failed to please the public by the number of new subscribers. Just in one night, the capitalization of Netflix sank more than 20%, as the streaming service added 8.28 million new customers from October to December, but estimated it would be able to attract "only" 2.5 million subscribers for the next three-months period. For some reasons, polls showed average expectations of more than twice better prognoses of about 5.9 million subscribers expected in the first quarter of 2022. It would be strange to keep such a high pace after a prosperous Christmas season, plus in conditions when no more corona lockdowns were awaited.

Further bearish moves continued to develop mostly under its own inertia. However, as soon as there would be the first signs of a comeback start in Netflix shares, with its new season of "The Witcher" and other premiere events, the prospect of a great profitable return here may cause a huge interest in this asset. Sales of Netflix for the first two quarters of pandemic 2020 was $5.77 billion and $6.15 billion, respectively, and each of them was much lower than last figures of $7.71 billion. The formal profit of business now is lower but exclusively thanks to the costs of creating new attractive shows. So, it all works to bring and keep customers from all over the world. Netflix picked up more than 36 million subscribers in 2020 plus 18.2 million more in 2021. Most of them are loyal Netflix customers. So, even if each quarter of 2022 brings 2.5 million newcomers, then on average it could potentially give about 10 millions, which looks quite a normal result to justify the potential comeback in price.

NFLX

2822

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11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

AVAUSD

3475

16.06.2022

Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP