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15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

16.06.2022
Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used  to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with  a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in  Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

12.04.2024
CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

12.05.2022
Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties. 

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8½ Weeks of Ripple Rally: Will There Be a Sequel?

As I told you two months ago, Ripple was going to greatly outperform Bitcoin dynamics, remaining a reliable investment option. The short-term benefits from Ripple are amazing, as the third most important crypto token first "took the Bastille" of $3.00 on July 14, and then hit a $3.5444 new historical high only three days later, when it gained about 16% within just twenty-four hours. The growth continues even as I write this text.

Trump's World Liberty Financial crypto fund is accelerating like lamps seen from an express train, representing billions and billions of dollars on paper. The project will provide enormous inflows into most usable tokens. Bitcoin scaled a record peaking price above $123,000, which is 14% above the post-election peaks of December 2024, but it has added less than 10% since mid-May, but Ripple is now up over 50% from the prices where I was actively buying it only 8,5 weeks ago. Someone can grab their profits here if they want. As for me, I will wait at least until a $5.50 target by Standard Chartered bank for the rest of 2025, which also mentioned a possible reach of as high as $8.00 in 2026. It is to double the capital even from current prices, it turns out, if one believes these estimates.

Trump and his close circle urged congressmen to make regulatory rules in favour of the crypto industry. There is a rising promise that the so-called stablecoin bills, which are the GENIUS Act and the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, will be passed before the weekend. The legislation initially failed in a House vote this Tuesday but is now expected to advance very soon. House Financial Services Committee chair French Hill told CNBC in an interview they have the necessary votes, so that there is strong bipartisan support for the bill. Again, there is the third bill to block the federal government from creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC) through the Federal Reserve unless it’s done with a specific authorization through Congress.

The crypto environment, and especially some selected coins, could simply thrive under such conditions, being replenished not only by exchange-traded funds, but also for the purpose of creating national reserves. If this is done in the US, then soon some other jurisdictions will follow, it is only a matter of time. If the world has recently cast aside all doubts about Bitcoin, then now confidence in some other altcoins will grow as well. It’s high time to switch to other solid and popular altcoins after such a strong bullish run in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Ripple could be the best idea.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Maker Is Pushing Through the Resistance at $2000

Maker (MKR), also known as Sky, is rising by 1.3% to $1,901 this week, outperforming the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) is up just 0.4% to $118,120. MKR is once again approaching the key resistance level at $2,000 — its fifth attempt in the past three weeks. The repeated tests indicate growing pressure, but so far the token has struggled to decisively break through.

While the broader crypto environment is bullish, MKR continues to lag behind BTC's pace, reflecting its close correlation with general market sentiment rather than leading it. Speculation around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's possible resignation had briefly supported crypto assets, as markets anticipated a more dovish successor who might cut interest rates. However, U.S. President Donald Trump ultimately decided against removing Powell due to fears of a negative stock market reaction.

Without fresh, token-specific catalysts, MKR may find it difficult to sustain momentum beyond the $2,000 mark.

1867
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J&J Boost High on Sales

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock, which has been mostly consolidating for a little less than two years, all of a sudden got a rather promising future. The company substantially raised its annual sales guidance despite all those tariff-driven headwinds for the industry. The firm announced on July 16 that it now expects to post its revenue number within the higher range of $93.2 billion to $93.6 billion, up from its own previous estimate of $91 billion to $91.8 billion. So, even the conservative projection is higher than the previous optimistic one. This sounds amazing for the company, which is well known as a specialist in such a conservative segment as daily consumer healthcare goods, with also a diversified portfolio in pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

As to the quarterly routine, Johnson & Johnson also said its Q2 sales rose by 5.8% versus the same three-month period a year before to reach $23.74 billion vs analyst consensus of $22.84 billion, finding out an almost extra one billion of US Dollars somewhere, with Q2 EPS (earnings per share) of $2.77 to top forecast estimates of $2.68 as well. It now expects to add another billion or two in the remaining six months of the year. A much bigger lead in the score than I personally would have expected to see! Given that J&J shares have only gained about 2% to the $158+ area so far in pre-market trading today, I'm looking to grab them right now, expecting a retest of the $170 to $180 range over time, perhaps with such good inputs.

What's the way they do it, right? Its CEO Joseph Wolk cited demand fuelled by Darzalex blood cancer therapy, which showed better-than-projected sales of $3.54 billion. J&J also gave hope for some "game-changing approvals and submissions anticipated in areas like lung and bladder cancer, major depressive disorder, psoriasis, surgery and cardiovascular". Joseph Wolk also gave a comment on the tariff issue. Compared to his previous saying, based on the information available at the launch of Trump's tariff threats, that he anticipated a $400 million impact, now in the wake of a framework trade truce between the US and China, the hit is "probably" down to $200 million. Sounds like nothing more painful than a mosquito bite to such a giant seller. President Trump is going to unveil levies on pharmaceuticals likely by the end of July or early August, beginning with what he has once described as a "low tariff rate" to give businesses enough time to shift their manufacturing operations to the US territory. But he added that a "very high tariff" will then be into effect "in a year or so". That's why it's surely too early to forecast the company's prospect concerning 2026 results, but it's going to be fine for the rest of 2025.

They claim that they have calculated everything properly, even despite Stelara biosimilar competition. Stelara is a biologic medication designed for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, active psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. It basically works by targeting proteins in the immune system that cause inflammation. But what's important from the financial point of view that Stelara was made by Janssen Biotech, Inc., a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, so that Johnson & Johnson is the original manufacturer and marketer of Stelara, but there are now rather newly baked biosimilar versions available, made by Teva, Alvotech and Amgen. Those versions have also received US regulatory approval, clearly competing in sales with J&J's original medication.

While all this is happening, the company's inner forecasts have increased, and they also promised nice dividend numbers of $1.30 per share each quarter. Next time when the dividend will be payable is on September 9, 2025, to all stockholders of record on August 26. Those dividends are based on a 3.4% annual rate, and of course are far from the major argument when buying an asset or not, but I would not mind receiving them for a couple of quarters, if the asset itself also grows in price by some digits. This can't be compared with my return from AI investment, of course, but could be very interesting for the conservative part of my portfolio, instead of just cash or low-yield public bonds which I consider as a waste of money. Back to JNJ, monthly charts show that a multi-year support around $140 has been tested quickly but properly in early April during the overall tariff correction of Wall Street, the risk of losing something does not look significant, but a repeat of the 2020-2021 mini-rally for J&J looks like the baseline scenario.

1750
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Binance Coin Is Ready to Surpass $700 Resistance

Binance Coin (BNB) is up 0.4% this week to $695.20, moving in lockstep with Bitcoin (BTC), which is also gaining 0.4% to $119,063, fully recovering its earlier losses. With momentum building across the crypto market, BNB is emerging as a top contender for further upside.

A key catalyst is the announcement of a new partnership between BNB Chain and Ondo Finance to integrate tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). This move aims to bridge traditional finance and decentralised platforms, potentially drawing institutional capital onto the Binance ecosystem, a major positive for the token and the exchange.

Technically, BNB briefly touched the $700 resistance level on Monday before pulling back slightly. However, the retreat was shallow, suggesting underlying strength and setting the stage for a potential breakout. A clean move above $700 would open the door toward the $800 level, with bullish momentum accelerating alongside Bitcoin’s rally.

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