News and analysis

Monero (XMR) is trading flat around $231 this week after briefly rising by 4.72% to $242.7 earlier. The token maintains a steady uptrend, having surpassed key resistance levels at $175 in December and $195 in January. It is now retesting the $225 resistance from above, with price targets set at $275–$285.

Unlike most cryptocurrencies, Monero is less affected by broader market volatility due to its strong focus on privacy and fungibility. Optimism around privacy coins surged after the U.S. Treasury lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash last December. Although Monero was previously delisted from Binance due to regulatory concerns, the easing of restrictions suggests a more favourable outlook for the project going forward. If momentum continues, XMR could push toward its next resistance levels in the coming weeks.

As most Wall Street stocks are only hovering near record highs, reluctant to take extra steps up under global tariff threats, some equities noted in our previous reports are making headway. In particular, the dizzying success of Intel Corporation (INTC) becomes so clear, following a new U.S. regulatory landscape. In a tariff-driven domestic frame, a recent pledge by Donald Trump's vice president JD Vance for a stepped-up push to support the nationally-oriented chip manufacturers raised the market price of Intel from just $20 to $25 per share in a few days over the past week. Now, to this initial 25% jump, another 16% has been added within one trading session on February 18. When touching the next $27.5 mark, Intel continues to shine on news about potential splitting this large business in two.

Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reported after the long weekend that the other two semiconductor flagships, Broadcom (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were exploring the prospects of the deal. Broadcom, which is a worldwide specialist in designing and developing solid-state components for a lot of chip-based technologies, including its role in common efforts for Apple's chip Baltra for new iPhones after 2026, seems to be trying to acquire Intel's chip-design segment and its marketing operations. Meanwhile, the chip giant of Taiwan is considering controlling stake in Intel factories. A possible partnership between Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor in dividing Intel was noted by several whistleblowers. White House plans to boost U.S. chip production may create legal guarantees and also expedite a possible approval for the deal.

TSM already has its fabrication facility in the state of Arizona, which it officially plans to expand "in the coming years". That's why TSM could be very receptive to such a deal, if Trump's administration would make preferences for producing U.S.-designed chips on United States soil. There could be only two obstacles. First, negotiations are probably in early stages. Trump could have objections to the concept of letting a foreign entity control U.S.-based chip factories. But he supposedly has no big choice on financing domestic chip production, taking into consideration that Intel was too weak in recent decades, lagging behind AI grands.

The U.S. new government may be ready to push for TSM to support Intel, as the Republicans need production expansion in the U.S. to show the success in creating jobs and adding the market value to the company, which was declining for years. TSM could even avoid import tariffs in this case. It is only unclear whether these plans will include Intel. Anyway, those stockholders who had responded to our call after the start of Intel's surge last week have already made at least 20%, and can now make a calm and informed choice on whether to take profits or wait beyond a reasonable $50 per share target that looks likely if all the deal leaks later materialize.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is down 5.6% to $0.2530 this week, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.0% to $96,164. The memecoin briefly dropped to $0.2419 before recovering slightly, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of a 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and vehicle imports. Investor reaction was moderate, but DOGE fell below the midpoint of its ascending channel. A return above this level is crucial to avoid further declines to $0.2000—or, in an unlikely bearish scenario, even $0.1000.

Despite the current weakness, Dogecoin retains upside potential. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering an application for a spot DOGE ETF, which could drive institutional interest. Additionally, continued support from high-profile backers, including Elon Musk, strengthens its long-term appeal.

Gold prices blew the horn of a hasty retreat from their recently achieved historical highs. April futures for the yellow metal have restored an offensive line below $2900 per troy ounce last Friday, which lies slightly south of the record peak value at $2968.50. U.S.-Russia talks on potential Ukraine peace deal make the risk-off mood quieter these days. Yet, one may hardly expect a quick reversal from an overall bullish trend in golden assets. Uncertainty over global trade issues is still an important source of worries for conservative investors into the bonds denominated both in the U.S. Dollars and Euros. Gold cannot be a direct rival to high-yielding stock instruments or crypto transactions. When it comes to Gold prices, we should rather take into account a potential decrease in guaranteed income that can be expected from public bonds at lower interest rates. The further dovish policy moves by central banks may be postponed but they are still just around the corner.

Federal Reserve's governor Christopher Waller said on February 17 that the new White House administration's new tariffs could have only a "modest impact" on inflationary pressures, so that the central bank is going to "look through these effects" when setting the monetary course. Trump's tariff barriers should not stop the Fed from acting "if it is otherwise appropriate", just as Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, as he cited as two bright examples of things which did not prevent the U.S. central bankers from changing the interest rates environment. Even as those effects of tariffs could be "larger than I anticipate", he added, other policies under discussion could have "positive supply effects" to put downward pressure on sticky inflation. He could presumably imply tax cuts and the role of protectionism in boosting domestic production.

Christopher Waller, who was actually appointed to the Fed by Donald Trump in his first presidential term, concluded with the sentence that policy should be on hold "until inflation is falling again", but this should not "paralyze" interest rate moves down, as February's disappointing rise in the U.S. CPI (consumer price Index) reflected seasonal data adjustment and "not rising price pressures". If 2025 would play out like 2024, then rate cuts would follow "at some point this year". FedWatch tool shows broad expectation for the next rate cut move to take place in June or July, even though the Fed is expected to hold its interest rates on pause, within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, after its nearest meeting in March. These are the clear fundamentals why Gold prices have stopped near the round figure of $3,000/oz, but also why the current pullbacks may be more of a temporary phenomenon.

The width of this stalling price range is unlikely to exceed $200/oz. Besides, the next and higher goals for Gold are already visible. As an example, the banking group of UBS freshly updated its Gold prices projections by mentioning their new target of over $3,200 and stabilization at "elevated levels" in the coming years. UBS strategists cited "deep-rooted" bullish sentiment when "so much has already happened and it is only February", based on "underinvestment" as well as strong official sector demand, with record-high prices being detected "in just over 6 weeks since the start of the year". After missing some Gold-buying opportunities in 2024, many investors may use a "carpe diem" approach (of making the most of the present moment and giving little thought to the future) to seize on minor market corrections more promptly, suggesting liquidity issues with sensitivity to increases in physical demand.