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15.09.2022

Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016.

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

16.06.2022

Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

12.04.2024

CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

12.05.2022

Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

13.05.2025

Dogecoin Is Likely to Continue Up to $0.3000

Dogecoin (DOGE) is down 2.2% this week to $0.2266, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by just 0.8% to $103,333. This follows a sharp 51% rally last week, which saw DOGE climb to $0.2595 and break through the key resistance at $0.2000. The token is now pulling back to retest this level from above, a move that could pave the way for another push towards the $0.3000 mark if the support holds.

While there are no specific internal catalysts driving DOGE at the moment, broader market sentiment remains constructive. Optimism stems from improving U.S.–China trade relations, with both countries agreeing to reduce previously aggressive tariffs and continue negotiations. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve for dovish signals that could indicate a resumption of interest rate cuts. Any such hints would likely support further gains across the crypto sector.

DOGUSD

2681

Rafael Quintana Martinez

12.05.2025

Cosmos Inspired by U.S.-China Trade Talks

Cosmos (ATOM) is up 2.5% this week to $5.405, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which has added just 0.2% to $104,435. The token's rise is driven by expectations of its listing on Japan’s Bitbank crypto exchange on May 13. To mark the occasion, Bitbank will temporarily waive trading fees for ATOM transactions, further fuelling interest.

This upside move is also supported by broader market optimism following successful U.S.–China trade talks over the weekend. The two sides agreed to a 90-day trade war truce and announced substantial tariff reductions—U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were cut from 145% to 30%, while China reduced its tariffs on U.S. goods by 10%. The agreement has significantly boosted risk sentiment across financial markets, lifting cryptocurrencies toward new all-time highs.

With improving fundamentals and a favourable macro backdrop, ATOM is now eyeing a potential rally towards the $7.500 level.

ATMUSD

2600

Bash

07.05.2025

Apple Laid Bare Weak Spots

Shares of the iPhone maker were down as much as 7% in the next three trading days after May 1 when the company released its quarterly earnings, despite beating consensus estimates in both profit and revenue lines. The giant company published its Q1 sales at $95.36 billion to bring $1.65 of adjusted equity per share vs analyst pool projections which pointed at $94.68 billion and $1.63 per share, respectively, with particular sales of iPhones at $46.84 billion vs Wall Street's average estimates of $46.17 billion. In fact, that's almost 8% better in profit and 5% higher in revenue on an annual basis. It would seem, live and rejoice, but at least three things prevent this kind of very nice attitude.

The first, but perhaps the smallest problem, of the latest Apple's report is that such a bar for earnings had been already achieved in Q3 2024. Since then, only outstanding results from October to December, as it usually happens in the pre-Christmas periods, gave a bright spike to $2.4 of equity per share on $124.3 billion of sales, but no other positive changes are seen right at the moment. The crowd might have felt as if the last six months were merely a waste of time. The surge in Apple quotes to $260 before the end of 2024 has already priced that spike in, but the following corrective move well below $200 looks logically justified, since everything has returned to new normal levels.

And here is actually the second, and most crucial, reason why markets remained immune to the idea of purchasing Apple stock this time. Apparently, Apple has not yet fully decided how to overcome Trump's tariff barriers, given that the bulk of its products are still assembled in China. The life of the party, Tim Cook, showed a little depressing prospect. "Assuming that the current global tariff rates, policies and applications do not change for the balance of the quarter and no new tariffs are added", he estimated the negative impact to add $900 million to quarterly costs. Tim Cook's version was that the majority of iPhones to be sold in the United States in the current quarter will somehow come from India, while most iPads, Macs and Apple Watches will come from Vietnam, but "the vast majority of Apple products for markets outside the U.S. will continue to come from China". At the same time, he argued Apple has "a complex supply chain", so that "there’s always risk in the supply chain", and "what we learned some time ago was that having everything in one location had too much risk with it". He also signalled that Apple’s efforts to spend more in the US may bring real costs to Apple’s balance sheet even higher, as the company will buy 19 billion chips from a dozen US states for this purpose. This may require extra costs, and it is clear that production in the US cannot be as cheap as in China or India.

Apple’s accessories and wearables segment, with products like AirPods, gave $7.52 billion, compared with estimates of $7.85 billion. But that would be half bad. Another half was that Apple’s services business, which is usually very strong, so that nobody seriously expected to see a weak point here, gave $26.65 billion in the recent quarter, compared with average analyst estimates of $26.69 billion. This segment didn't show any superiority at the proper moment. Meanwhile, in a nasty wake-up call, Epic Games developer of the Fortnite game, who has been in court with Apple for several years, finally won the case last week. Apple risks losing billions of dollars in profits, since other app developers, following Fortnite example, will be able to receive direct payments in the App Store, without sharing up to 30% of the proceeds as Apple demanded before. Apple made extremely difficult for app developers to pay directly, so that payers went through a series of screens, including one with a warning that Apple did not guarantee the security of the payment. Many people at this stage began to doubt and paid the old–fashioned way - through the App Store. Again, if the payment didn't go through the App Store, Apple still required a 27% commission if the third-party app was downloaded from the App Store, while the app creators were supposed to report on transactions and deduct a share to Apple, which is now seems to be unable to charge a commission on purchases outside the App Store.

All in all, Apple CEOs concluded the company could get a "low-to-mid single-digit" revenue growth, but at the same time projected some "hit to gross margins". They said it will be 45.5% to 46.5% in the current quarter, which is marginally below analyst pool's estimates of 46.58%, according to LSEG data. Such expectations already meant a potential damage to profit levels even in case of increasing sales.

As you can see, there are several reasons to think more about possible stagnation in Apple's earnings, which makes me agree with the majority of the market and refrain from fresh purchases of Apple shares so far. Many other tech names like Microsoft, Google, Meta or Amazon do not have such bare weak spots and are quickly recovering. Less connection to the physical supply of products, as well as offering cloud storage services for big data and artificial intelligence features can attract more money, at least at this stage of the market's sentiment. Until Apple shares learn to pass through the area of technical resistance near $215 (marked in orange on chart below), plus are within the boundaries of the descending channel (I marked in blue on the same chart), for me this is an indication that it's too early to talk about buying Apple.

AAPL

2647

Rafael Quintana Martinez

07.05.2025

Neo Is Struggling to Recover

Neo (NEO) is down 0.8% this week to $5.56, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1.4% to $96,870. NEO recently touched its lowest level since March 2020 at $4.28, before rebounding sharply by 56% to a local high of $6.75. However, this recovery was abruptly cut short amid speculation over large-scale token sales by the Neo Foundation, which pushed prices back down to $5.00.

Despite a generally bullish tone in the crypto market—bolstered by improving sentiment around U.S.–China trade negotiations—Neo remains sluggish. The token has not responded meaningfully to broader positive developments, suggesting weak investor confidence or lingering concerns over token supply pressure.

Under current conditions, a rally towards $10.00 appears unlikely in the short term. While further upside remains possible, token direction is uncertain and all scenarios remain on the table.

NEOUSD

2737