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12.05.2022

Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

12.04.2024

CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

15.09.2022

Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016.

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

16.06.2022

Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

09.04.2025

BAT Could Fall Below $0.1000

Basic Attention Token (BAT) is down by 2.6% to $0.1162 this week, outperforming the broader crypto market slightly, where Bitcoin (BTC) is falling by 3.3% to $76,200. The market remains under heavy pressure amid deepening global trade tensions, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 104%. The move came after China refused to roll back its own reciprocal 34% tariff, following the U.S.'s identical levy announced earlier this month.

BAT has now dropped significantly from its March peak at $0.1500 and is hovering near the critical support level of $0.1000. The token is currently trading just above a midterm downtrend. A recent retest of trendline resistance suggests bearish momentum may continue in the short term, with a risk of prices dipping below support if broader market sentiment doesn’t stabilise.

BATUSD

3166

Rafael Quintana Martinez

08.04.2025

Synthetix Is Likely to Fall Further amid Trade War Escalation

Synthetix (SNX) is trading flat at $0.601 this week, mirroring Bitcoin (BTC), which is also steady at $78,886. Both assets have recovered from Monday’s sharp sell-off, when BTC dropped by 5.3% to $74,464 and SNX plunged by 8.8% to $0.546.

The rebound was fuelled by market optimism following an emergency Federal Reserve meeting on April 7 and speculation over a potential 90-day tariff truce from U.S. President Donald Trump. Although the White House later dismissed the rumour as fake news, it still provided a short-term lift to risk assets.

However, tensions remain high. Trump has since threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China unless it withdraws its planned 34% reciprocal levies on U.S. goods by the end of April 8. Beijing responded with defiance, vowing to retaliate.

With no resolution in sight, the ongoing trade war could renew pressure on cryptocurrencies. For SNX, that means a potential decline toward the $0.500 support level—a 16% drop from current prices—remains firmly on the table.

SNXUSD

3171

Rafael Quintana Martinez

08.04.2025

McDonald’s Protective Buying

Global stock markets remain under intense pressure, with S&P 500 broad market index futures plunging by 21.7% to 4,806 points from their February peak of 6,147. This pace of decline is reminiscent of the COVID-era crash, during which the index fell by 35.6%. At that time, the Federal Reserve intervened when losses reached 27%, deploying emergency measures to stabilise markets. While the current drawdown is less severe, the U.S. central bank has already held an emergency meeting on 7 April. However, no changes to monetary policy were announced, suggesting that policymakers are still monitoring the situation. In the absence of firm intervention, further downside pressure on the benchmark index remains likely, potentially allowing additional time for authorities to act.

The mounting stress in financial markets comes amid a rapidly escalating trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, further inflaming global trade tensions. China appears determined to respond in kind, raising the stakes in an already volatile environment. This turmoil has narrowed the range of stocks considered attractive, as investors flee from risk and seek resilience.

In this context, McDonald’s stands out as a relatively safe investment. The company benefits from its global brand and diversified presence, but critically, much of its supply chain relies on domestically produced food and goods. This shields it from the immediate impact of international trade disputes. Shares of McDonald’s are increasingly viewed as a defensive asset, offering greater stability and better performance during periods of heightened market turbulence.

Amid these conditions, I am planning to buy McDonald’s shares in the $296 to $302 range, targeting a price of $345 to $350. A stop-loss at $251 will help manage downside risk.

MCD

2826

MetadoroIn-house analytics

07.04.2025

Who Looks Resilient Enough in the Sea of Red

The big short play amid the tariff war agenda is going on, even gaining momentum. We surely are not witnessing the crash of global equity markets' stout building, yet the highest short-term profit still comes from downright bearish bets on each and every Wall Street and European stock indicator. U.S. futures sank further, with the S&P 500 broad barometer losing another 3% in the pre-market trading this Monday after nearly touching its lower 4,800 support base during Asia trading hours. Moreover, in just the last three working days, about 15% of its value is wasted. Hong Kong shares faced steepest one-session decline since 1997, including a plunge of the benchmark Hang Seng index by 13.2%. The Hang Seng index is down 27% in a month, being very close to where it just began the year of 2025 before the bulls revived on DeepSeek cheaper AI startup news. China’s mainland CSI300 index of national blue is 7% lower, while the team of state-backed investors admitted it has built up holdings of stocks in order to defend stability in local markets. A group of leading Chinese automakers, including Li Auto, Nio and Xpeng, fell by 12.5% on average, feeling the effects of the de facto blockade of their supplies to U.S. consumers.

Is any company of a business segment still staying unperturbed by this terrible sell-off action in a deep sea of red? A completely quiet place is difficult to find at the moment. Yet, there are equities, which suffered little or even struggled to add in market price on the very start of the massacre, when tech flagships were already leading big losses. As a few examples, McDonald's, Coca-Cola as well as Kroger retailer that operates supermarkets and multi-department stores throughout the U.S. even rose by 2% or more on the closing price of April 3, which was exactly the first working day after Trump's tough tariff announcement, and only later moderately lost some ground. As a result, McDonald's shares are now roughly at the levels they were last seen in mid-March or early February, when the fast-food chain had mostly recovered from the shock of E. coli in one of its menu items. A similar technical pattern is for Coca-Cola, which is still down 4% ahead of the opening bell for the regular trading today after losing 4.44% last Friday, but the soft drinks manufacturer is still traded within the range of February and March, and not near critical lows of a year ago like Amazon or Meta, which just lost double-digits twice over the last several weeks.

This behaviour in the economy segment consumption assets is more typical not when recession is actually waiting around the corner, but rather for situations of psychological uncertainty for most consumers of goods and services, so that households are trying to find a solution in purchasing cheaper food and everyday necessities at low prices, putting aside the rest of the money for a rainy day fund. To some extent, this reassures investing minds about the future prospects of the entire market, saying that the next stage of the overall rally is not completely cancelled, but postponed and can be expected a little later after buying will resume from lower levels. Major tech names are still among the worst losers on today's pre-market, as market crowds fear that their yesterday's darlings may be severely taxed out of revenge by the EU structures. Even the global AI chip leader Nvidia plunged another 6.5% to drop below $88 per share even before the start of the regular session on Wall Street.

The hyping Tesla EV-maker, which traded flat or slightly up in the first 24 hours after the tariffs were imposed, being the least dependent on imported foreign components and having a strong manufacturing base in the US, China and Germany at the same time, and therefore less exposed to cross-border levies, has fallen by 18% over the past two days, including 9% in today's pre-market. This happened mostly due to the overestimation of image risks for Tesla by some of its well-known bullish admirers. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, one of Tesla’s most prominent long-time bulls, commented on cutting aggressively his price target on the stock from $550 to $315, as he referred to "intensifying tariff pressures and a worsening global brand crisis" and described the current situation as a “double whammy” of economic "tariff Armageddon" and reputational damage that could "reshape Tesla’s trajectory". Wedbush analysts' estimate is that Tesla allegedly lost at least 10% of its future global customer base due to "self-inflicted brand issues", with the damage exceeding 20% among the EU customers' base. For us, this looks like a very aggravated number. Again, $315 is far from $550, but still about 50% higher than the current sub-$220 levels that Tesla is testing now, promising even more gains for buyers from deeper lows. Nevertheless, those comments clearly helped to contribute much to the negative momentum here and now.

US500

3187