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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
I Go Short While Gold is Charmingly Shining

Gold prices have surged by an impressive 12.0% since the beginning of March, marking a significant uptrend. This rapid ascent mirrors the movement witnessed during the February-March 2022 period when Russia's invasion of Ukraine propelled gold prices by 15.0% within six weeks. Such steep increases are often followed by corrections, as seen when prices retreated from $2070 per ounce to $1890—an 8.0% decline—within a month back then.

Given the current overbought conditions with gold trading at $2300 per ounce, there are compelling indicators suggesting a potential reversal. Consequently, I am considering a short position, anticipating a correction in gold prices. I plan to enter the market at $2190-2210, targeting a return to this range. To manage risk, I will set a stop-loss at $2400 to limit potential losses in case of adverse price movements.

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B
Following Market Movers

As the winter season of corporate earnings is over, and the first (banking) segment would open a series of new quarterly reports only in two weeks on Wall Street, I just set myself a simple goal of closely watching some biggest intraday movers. Although, no great discoveries were made, I briefly took five stocks in pencil.

Paramount Global (PARA) soared by nearly 15% during the regular trading session on April 3 to follow a media leak that the entertainment conglomerate with its famous film and TV studio ultimately took a deal offer from Skydance Media. The merger may include all of Paramount, with Nickelodeon, CBS and other popular cable networks to solve the financial matters without breaking up the company's assets, as it needs to reduce debts. This week's price jump was impressive, yet this sends only the first positive sign as both the company's business and the multi-month technical trend on Paramount is in decline for the last three years. This means, as a potential investor I need much more time to observe the market price developments before deciding to acknowledge such a financially suffering company as "worthy" to be added to my chosen stocks' portfolio.

Intel (INTC) share price dropped by 8.22% after the semiconductor chip manufacturer announced $7 billion in operating losses for its foundry arm business in 2023. It was the very first time for Intel to report its separated numbers from the product business, which had $11.3 billion in operating income. Intel chips are not proper ones for generative AI purposes, and so it continues to lose to rivals like Taiwan Semiconductors and Samsung Electronics, not to mention AMD and NVIDIA. I became sure once again that I was right when ignoring Intel stocks amid overall chip madness, and I even may consider Intel as an object of short selling, if the tendency would have more technical confirmations soon.

As soon as I jokingly mentioned Easter eggs investment the real chicken egg producer Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) attracted attention by posting solid $3.01 of Q1 equity per share (EPS), compared to $2.11 only in consensus expectations and $0.35 in the Christmas quarter. The company is successfully withstanding a current stagnation or even partial decline in egg prices, it still benefits from reaching extremely peak levels recently. Cal-Maine Foods share price initially added more than 8% after the opening bell on Wednesday, yet it managed to hold only 3.62%, representing less than a half of immediate gains. The company's market value now clearly pretends to refresh all-time records, yet additional time is needed to make any conclusions if the intentions are serious or not.

Ford Motor Company (F) rose by 2.8% in one day after its sales reportedly added 6.8% for the last three months, thanks to growing demand for its Maverick hybrid truck. It was also up 42% YoY. Yet, the mid-term charts still show a lot of uncertainty about future prospects of Ford, and I am rather sceptical about investing in Ford or even about speculative trading for this stock at the particular moment, as flat market prevails here for the last two years.

The last but not the least, Western Digital Corporation (WDC), which offers data-storage solutions, added 4%. The company nearly doubled its market value for the last five months, after it separated its HDD (hard disk drive) and Flash divisions. I found that Western Digital's cloud revenue rose 23% YoY to provide 35% of its total sales, while also minimizing its operating expenses by 17%. Amazing results, so I would consider WDC as a possible candidate to my regular stock portfolio as well, depending on its purely technical response to an important resistance line from summer 2021.

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An "Unmitigated Disaster" for Tesla

If there is some truth in what people say that safety in numbers then Tesla stocks have become less reliable investments following the latest news. The world's largest and most hyped EV manufacturer reported disappointing first-quarter deliveries. The Elon Musk brainchild giant not only missed consensus expectations by far, as Tesla factories shipped only 386,810 vehicles vs the preliminary estimated number of nearly 450,000, but its actual numbers dropped in absolute terms for the first time after the pandemic spring of 2020. An important detail to consider is that the best-selling Model 3 and Model Y stood at 369,783 to mark a 10% decline YoY, falling deep below 426,940 units in consensus forecasts on Bloomberg. In fact, Tesla doubters have long suspected possible troubles with demand due to tight competition in China amid still expensive prices for electric cars for consumers. Their concerns intensified since the end of January when Tesla warned investors that the growth rate of its vehicle volume may become "notably lower" in 2024, compared to the previous year. Elon Musk personally urged the Fed to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, mentioning that too high borrowing costs inevitably continue to weigh on car sales all over the world. Overall, Tesla share price came down from $250.08 on the first trading day of January to $175.22 at closing price on April 1, which already formed a 30% retracement. However, a shocking effect with delivery numbers the next day led the stock to more than 6% lower levels below $165, which makes the price closer to diving to its new multi-month lows since May 2023.

Meanwhile, a gap between production and deliveries increased. Q1 2024 production numbers reached 433,371 vehicles, against an anticipated 452,976, with Model 3/Y making up 412,376 of that total, vs a missed 439,194 forecast. “Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin,” the company's official explanation is. However, the incident at Gigafactory happened in the last month of the quarter, while other reasons could only partially cover short delivery as well as lower production facts of the report. Thus, we can just agree with Wedbush analysts group words who literally said: "While we were anticipating a bad 1Q, this was an unmitigated disaster 1Q that is hard to explain away", so that "some darker days could clearly be ahead that could disrupt the long-term Tesla narrative". Elon Musk and his professional team now need to put efforts turning this around.

The only good story behind the scene is that Musk probably may get a good chance of purchasing more shares of Tesla later if he is still sticking to his idea of owning a larger stake in Tesla before investing more into AI technologies. This may give little comfort for short-sellers, also promising brilliant opportunities for the crowds who are extremely interested in buying more Tesla shares later at a well discounted price. We sincerely belong to this waiting-for-purchase group, even though we expect that a good purchase for Tesla stock may be somewhere within a potential technical range between $125 and $140 per share, without reaching the January 2023 low at $101.81.

All Tesla troubles are here, yet we believe troubles are temporary. Ultimately, Tesla is more than car deliveries; it's the energy hub and gateway for numerous EV producers. It could be compared with Google, which is much more than the search engine. Tesla domination in North America, Europe and global markets would grow.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
XEM May Recover by 10%

NEM (XEM) experienced a significant 11.0% loss this week, with prices dropping to $0.0453. Wednesday saw an even steeper decline, with the token falling to $0.0427, breaching the support level at $0.0450. However, prices later managed to rise back above this support level, offering some hope for further recovery. If prices can sustainably remain above this level, there may be potential for an upward movement towards $0.0500.

Despite this potential for recovery, it's important to note that there are no fundamental factors currently supporting such a rise in NEM's price. The broader cryptocurrency market, as represented by Bitcoin (BTC), has also experienced a decline, with BTC losing 6.5% to reach $66,150 this week.

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