Noticias y análisis

As I have already shared my clear intention to take most of mid-term profits on Gold trades on Good Friday, especially if there is another spectacular price jump immediately after the Easter weekend, now I confirm that this is exactly what I did. Over 3% of extra value on April 21 brought the total gains for the latest couple of weeks to as much as 15%, which looks like more than enough in my eyes. It is also worth noting here that the rationale for the latest climb up this hill, which is only about $70 short of the round figure of $3,500 per troy ounce, did not seem fundamentally compelling.

Nominally, it was Trump's call to fire Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, which reputable strategist Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI even characterized as allegedly a "self-defeating" action to position Powell "as a scapegoat" in case tariffs will actually slow down the economy. However, if this is truly a doomed, i.e. unfeasible, call, then pure logic suggests that it is unlikely to provide the basis for situational changes in the market sentiment for more than a few days. But if this financial high priest's "elimination because of one man" is indeed a realistic scenario, then it would be related to as fast as possible rate cut moves for the U.S. Dollar, designed to prevent recession prospects against which Trump's attack was supposedly intended.

Thus, this mental circle is closed, so that fading recession fears should not only lift the major Wall Street indices from their current lows to prompt the fresh investment boom, as those indices dropped this Monday mainly due to increasing fears of a recession, but another consequence would lie in reducing demand for traditional safe haven assets like gold or silver. Perhaps, in this case, a speculative play of strengthening rival reserve currencies and crypto assets may resume, but gold will probably be traded around $3,500 or slightly above only by inertia, which will not produce lasting effects. Any pullback in Gold, once it starts, by the way, would confirm my pre-determination to also add more equities, including tech giants, into my long-term portfolio, given increasingly favourable price discounts in CFDs like Google, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA etc.

One of my darlings, the hyping EV maker Tesla, will report on April 22, soon after the closing bell, and any possible temporary lows on lower-than-expected earnings could provide a historic chance to buy incredibly low in the after-hours. IBM is going to report the following night, and Google-parent Alphabet would be the next giant to be exposed one more day after. Procter & Gamble and PepsiCo are also on my radar due to their quarterly reports this Thursday. And maybe Philip Morris will have something interesting to say on Wednesday, although I'm less optimistic about that.

Finally, here is my very short version of Trump-Powell's story for all who missed it. The US president criticised Powell, who said last week that interest rates should not be lowered until it becomes clear that Trump’s tariff plans won’t lead to a persistent surge in inflation. Trump addressed Powell to initiate “preemptive cuts” if he is not intended to risk a slowing economy. "With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump commented in his post on Truth Social. This suddenly sent Wall St broadly lower and bond yields higher. Why the news feeds just focused on Trump's warnings about weaker economic outlook with higher-for-longer interest rates rather than the possibility of Powell ultimately buckling under pressure from Trump's team is a mystery to me. How about you?

The key words were clearly a call to cut rates soon, not the threat of a recession that would result if nothing was done. Powell may not resign, of course, before the end of his term (a little over a year from now), but he and the Federal Reserve’s seven-member board of other governors, may be quicker with nearest interest rate decisions to mitigate damage from tariffs, if inflation number for the last months would be cool enough for this before May 7 or June meetings.

If I am partially right in my expectations, so-called risky stock assets, aka growth stocks, will soon come to life. And they will shine brighter than gold, which will look too expensive above $3,500. Will it not soon be time to remember J. R. R. Tolkien's poem about Aragorn? "All that is gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost; The old that is strong does not wither, Deep roots are not reached by the frost..."

The extraordinary rally of the EURUSD appears to be nearing its end. Since early March, the pair has surged by 10.7%, reaching as high as 1.15200, with much of the momentum driven by sharp gains during Asian trading hours in April. However, the bullish drivers that fuelled this ascent now seem to be fading.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have entered a period of de-escalation, with both sides signalling a willingness to seek compromise. In response, U.S. Treasury yields have stabilised—an indicator of calmer market sentiment—which in turn has brought more balance to the currency markets. Any progress towards formal negotiations between Washington and Beijing could further challenge the recent weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

Technically, the EURUSD has now overshot its previous upside targets, suggesting that a deeper reversal could be on the horizon. The pair’s current levels may represent a turning point, with primary downside targets seen between 1.10500 and 1.11500.

Against this backdrop, a short position at current levels is being considered, with a stop-loss set at 1.19500 in case of renewed Euro strength.

EOS is down 1.0% to $0.6539 this week, lagging behind the broader cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is rising by 3.2% to $87,348. The decline appears largely technical, with no major fundamental developments currently weighing on the project.

Despite EOS’s subdued performance, the broader market may soon receive a boost from macroeconomic catalysts. U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a move that could ease monetary conditions significantly. Whether through rate cuts or a potential shift toward quantitative easing, any dovish pivot by the Fed would likely inject fresh momentum into risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.

Can you believe it's time for Easter already?! Where has the time gone? The two decades of April were spent completely for a set of emotional whipsaws in global markets. Easter baskets are one of my favourite childhood memories. However, this time I dare not to say is my Easter basket of assets full or empty of eggs. More precisely, there are a lot of various and coloured eggs, and even not all of my eggs are now in one basket, as there are big techs and consumer stocks, currencies and gold among them. But it is still unclear what particular size of profit, small or big, is hidden behind their painted patterns. They are only waiting to be cracked some later, but it is now difficult to predict where the delicious chocolate surprises would be hidden to pick them up already in May. Or, at least, within two or three months.

I have no doubt that each kind of fillings from these asset eggs will be tasty at some moment well before the end of the year, but dramatic price swings due to tariff battle fears have queered the pitch for investing minds in the short-term. What is clear right now is only that Gold is hitting records, already above $3,350, thanks to likely plans to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chief to cut US Dollar's interest rates faster. But possible stabilisation factors, like an Ukraine peace deal, originally designed in Washington and then transiting through Paris yesterday night, if successful, would cause a strong pullback for precious metals. If so, I prefer to take some profit from my Gold positioning to buy it lower and later again.

Besides, some major rotation from growth to value stocks happened on Wall Street, with the Consumer Staples select sector fund (XLP) adding nearly 3.5% in the course of the last 5 working days since April 10, even though the tech segment lost the most on average. But even here, things are not so clear. Businesses offering everyday consumer goods are seen as a hedge against recession risks and trade restrictions, but the upcoming US negotiations with Japan, and then other rivals, could shape things up to a risk-on mood. Consumer staples have recovered as if they never fell, but the total return on these assets is small, so they are good non-risky eggs, but not golden ones in perspective. The XLP index climbing from its current 82 points to 85 or slightly higher can be considered a done deal, but is that good money for an active investor like me? And the giant AI technologies which seem rotten eggs now could skyrocket at any moment, given their attractively low prices, to be quickly transformed into the class one eggs again.

Just look at how low the giant techs are now, and how much higher the upside potential is for the Technology Select fund (XLK), which includes all of my favourite stocks like Broadcom (AVGO), Google, Dell or the flagship NVIDIA, of course. Tech stocks don't guarantee anything, but they do hint at an average rise in the XLK index linked to them from current levels below 195 to 240, which would implicitly mean almost 25% additional profit. Once this basket of tech eggs recovers to its high value of the beginning of the year, of course. However, the mere lack of desire to continue the tech sale before the long weekend, and the preference for moderate crowd buying instead, gives a good sign.

There are also some very strange single eggs that can lie around for a long time and then turn out to be completely chocolate when ripen. I am talking about Eli Lilly (LLY), as an example, which I held throughout its lasting rollback down, but just yesterday this asset suddenly soared by 13%, from the $750 area to $850, promising to fly much higher, on news of a successful trial of Eli Lilly's new experimental pill for weight loss and against diabetes, although previously only injections medicine had a comparable effect. Eli Lilly's rival Novo Nordisk continues to fall with its Ozempic, while LLY shines brighter than ever, emerging as another off-basket golden egg in its own light.

I describe all this mainly to make a basic and probably trivial conclusion of mine that all those asset eggs I have ever bought to fill my baskets now deserve to remain inside intact and untouched. And who am I to choose which of them will ultimately become golden or more expensive than others, and which can simply be eaten with salt and bread some later? Perhaps, except for a couple of golden ones, which are actually very expensive Gold well above $3,300 per ounce, and also a couple of consumer staples eggs, which I am going to sell for the well-being and joy of my family right at the moment.

But I will hide the rest of the eggs back in their appropriate baskets to put them in a cold cellar until, I don't know, maybe even until Christmas, but looking in there throughout the year, week after week, to see if any of eggs have already become golden, so that it can be sold profitably at a proper time. Of course, I will not sell my Ripple in the near future, which I only bought a little over a week ago, and it is only just starting to grow well. And I will consider buying soon, perhaps, some other tokens from the crypto world too.