News and analysis

The big short play amid the tariff war agenda is going on, even gaining momentum. We surely are not witnessing the crash of global equity markets' stout building, yet the highest short-term profit still comes from downright bearish bets on each and every Wall Street and European stock indicator. U.S. futures sank further, with the S&P 500 broad barometer losing another 3% in the pre-market trading this Monday after nearly touching its lower 4,800 support base during Asia trading hours. Moreover, in just the last three working days, about 15% of its value is wasted. Hong Kong shares faced steepest one-session decline since 1997, including a plunge of the benchmark Hang Seng index by 13.2%. The Hang Seng index is down 27% in a month, being very close to where it just began the year of 2025 before the bulls revived on DeepSeek cheaper AI startup news. China’s mainland CSI300 index of national blue is 7% lower, while the team of state-backed investors admitted it has built up holdings of stocks in order to defend stability in local markets. A group of leading Chinese automakers, including Li Auto, Nio and Xpeng, fell by 12.5% on average, feeling the effects of the de facto blockade of their supplies to U.S. consumers.

Is any company of a business segment still staying unperturbed by this terrible sell-off action in a deep sea of red? A completely quiet place is difficult to find at the moment. Yet, there are equities, which suffered little or even struggled to add in market price on the very start of the massacre, when tech flagships were already leading big losses. As a few examples, McDonald's, Coca-Cola as well as Kroger retailer that operates supermarkets and multi-department stores throughout the U.S. even rose by 2% or more on the closing price of April 3, which was exactly the first working day after Trump's tough tariff announcement, and only later moderately lost some ground. As a result, McDonald's shares are now roughly at the levels they were last seen in mid-March or early February, when the fast-food chain had mostly recovered from the shock of E. coli in one of its menu items. A similar technical pattern is for Coca-Cola, which is still down 4% ahead of the opening bell for the regular trading today after losing 4.44% last Friday, but the soft drinks manufacturer is still traded within the range of February and March, and not near critical lows of a year ago like Amazon or Meta, which just lost double-digits twice over the last several weeks.

This behaviour in the economy segment consumption assets is more typical not when recession is actually waiting around the corner, but rather for situations of psychological uncertainty for most consumers of goods and services, so that households are trying to find a solution in purchasing cheaper food and everyday necessities at low prices, putting aside the rest of the money for a rainy day fund. To some extent, this reassures investing minds about the future prospects of the entire market, saying that the next stage of the overall rally is not completely cancelled, but postponed and can be expected a little later after buying will resume from lower levels. Major tech names are still among the worst losers on today's pre-market, as market crowds fear that their yesterday's darlings may be severely taxed out of revenge by the EU structures. Even the global AI chip leader Nvidia plunged another 6.5% to drop below $88 per share even before the start of the regular session on Wall Street.

The hyping Tesla EV-maker, which traded flat or slightly up in the first 24 hours after the tariffs were imposed, being the least dependent on imported foreign components and having a strong manufacturing base in the US, China and Germany at the same time, and therefore less exposed to cross-border levies, has fallen by 18% over the past two days, including 9% in today's pre-market. This happened mostly due to the overestimation of image risks for Tesla by some of its well-known bullish admirers. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, one of Tesla’s most prominent long-time bulls, commented on cutting aggressively his price target on the stock from $550 to $315, as he referred to "intensifying tariff pressures and a worsening global brand crisis" and described the current situation as a “double whammy” of economic "tariff Armageddon" and reputational damage that could "reshape Tesla’s trajectory". Wedbush analysts' estimate is that Tesla allegedly lost at least 10% of its future global customer base due to "self-inflicted brand issues", with the damage exceeding 20% among the EU customers' base. For us, this looks like a very aggravated number. Again, $315 is far from $550, but still about 50% higher than the current sub-$220 levels that Tesla is testing now, promising even more gains for buyers from deeper lows. Nevertheless, those comments clearly helped to contribute much to the negative momentum here and now.

Harmony (ONE) is down 2.0% to $0.0090 on Monday, outperforming the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) is slipping 3.0% to $76,599. BTC briefly plunged to $74,464—its lowest level since November 7—before recovering slightly, marking the apparent end of the Trump-driven rally in the crypto space.

ONE fell as much as 9.1% to $0.0083 earlier but staged a modest technical rebound. The overall market remains under pressure amid escalating global trade tensions initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Going forward, Harmony’s movements will likely be shaped by two key factors: potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and any easing in Trump’s tariff rhetoric.

Loopring (LRC) is down nearly 4% to $0.0934, slightly outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is declining by 5.25% to $82,152. Cryptocurrencies remain under heavy pressure as a massive sell-off in risky assets continues, driven by the escalation of the global trade war. The S&P 500 index has dropped 5.9% this week following retaliatory tariff measures from China.

Despite some calling it a "deceased project," LRC is attempting to hold its ground. The key technical level remains at $0.1000—reclaiming this threshold is crucial for maintaining upside potential. If the token can stabilize above this level, a move toward the $0.2000 resistance could come into play.

Everybody was well aware of the U.S. and European stocks' readiness to drop to supposedly fresh dips following Trump's aggressive tariff announcement. Even though this could be mostly attributed to effects from the field of psychology, those shifts in the equity market were easily predictable, unlike a fast slump of the Greenback against the same fundamental background. Such a radical shift in the foreign exchange sentiment became a big surprise for me personally, if only because it came from a strange kind of logical construction.

Just look at the typical explanations today. EUR/USD soared from a narrow range between 1.0800 and 1.0850 in early Asian hours to as high as 1.1146 at its peaking price soon after the European afternoon. Meanwhile, analysts at Reuters and Bloomberg shared the view that this happened because the EU goods will be subject to 20% tariffs, while China, Taiwan, Switzerland or Thailand are facing between 30% and 50% tariffs. A good outcome for Europe? That would be the case if the single European currency were to soar against the Chinese, Taiwanese, as well as Swiss or Vietnamese currencies, as Vietnam's export to the U.S. is damaged more than others by the highest tariffs among all U.S. trading partners. But nope, the Euro is soaring against the Dollar, although Trump's recent moves are clearly hurting the European economy in a more painful way than they may hurt the American one.

Hello friends, it is America that will now take more tax money at the border from Europe, and not European governments from America, even if Europe will finally decide to take additional retaliatory measures instead of negotiations to achieve any possible mutual easing of tariff conditions. Who are we fooling when saying that the Euro is allegedly supported by the German government's plan of increasing expenditure on infrastructure and defence. This will hardly boost the Eurozone’s largest economy, as they would only increase cost for budgets at the same moment when the White House declares it wants to spend the accumulated money from higher levies on tax cuts in their own country as well as on reducing the U.S. national debt.

Well, in my humble opinion, it is foreign trading partners, including EU businesses, who will now have to either spend more of their Euros to buy U.S. Dollars at the American border to pay the duties later, or take fewer amount of U.S. Dollars out of the United States after paying those duties to exchange for Euros. Can anyone explain what is positive about this for the Euro? “The blowback of U.S. tariffs onto the U.S. domestic economy leaves the dollar naked,” analysts at ING said today, in a client's note. However, if America is naked in any aspect here, it may play the naked muscles.

If so, frankly speaking, then the only possible reason for the further growth of the Euro, the British Pound and other currencies against the U.S. Dollar, lies in the immediate take-off of large capital by some rich daddies, as they became more afraid for the safety of their lovely money in the now-trumpian America, as soon as Uncle Sam shook his fist at them.

If this is the right thinking of mine, and there is still some logical ground behind this, then the current rise of the Euro by inertia will last no more than a couple of weeks, after which a complete reversal of a newborn mini uptrend will occur. Equity markets will soon recover from temporary dips on both sides of the pond, but Wall Street will regain its strength first and the Euro may reach 1.15, or even touch some relatively higher levels against the Dollar, and then return to usual weakness. If so, Gold will roll back for a while, but then will head to new records again. Bet, gentlemen, the poker game begins, while the Greenback is hardly naked at the table for everybody's fun!