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Consulte las perspectivas de mercado compartidas por los miembros de nuestra comunidad
21.04.2022
Tres acciones que están atrayendo la atención de los alcistas: Procter & Gamble

El informe financiero del famoso fabricante mundial de productos del segmento de consumo del primer trimestre de 2022 mostró todos los signos de un crecimiento estable de los ingresos, que alcanzaron los 19,38 mil millones de dólares, un 3,5% más de lo que esperaban los analistas de Wall Street, y también un 7% más del período correspondiente en 2021. Pero en comparación con la temporada prenavideña de fin de año, las cifras son, por supuesto, menores. Contrariamente a las afirmaciones de que las presiones de los precios de compra están perjudicando las ganancias de los productores, las ganancias por acción (EPS) aumentaron 7 centavos durante año a 1,33 dólares. Los suministros de productos médicos como Oral-B y Pepto-Bismol aumentaron un 13%.

Procter & Gamble elevó su pronóstico de ventas anual y confirmó que la demanda de productos de higiene y cuidado de la salud sigue siendo estable a pesar del aumento de los precios. "Orgánicamente, el crecimiento de los ingresos será del 6% al 7%", dijo la compañía, que está por encima del pronóstico de consenso de los analistas del 5,5%. Las acciones de Procter & Gamble subieron un 3% inmediatamente después de los datos trimestrales, deteniéndose en 88 centavos por debajo de su máximo de enero. Está claro que el precio no se mantendrá en los niveles actuales después de subir un 17,5% desde enero de 2021. Andre Schulten, vicepresidente de asuntos financieros de la compañía, dijo que espera una disminución de BPA de 1 centavo en el tercer trimestre debido al conflicto militar en Ucrania. En el cuarto trimestre, esta cifra puede disminuir en otros 4 centavos. El comentario sigue a la decisión de la compañía de dejar de invertir en Rusia y "reducir sustancialmente" su línea de productos, centrándose en productos de higiene, productos médicos y de cuidado personal. Rusia y Ucrania representan alrededor del 1,5% de todas las ventas de la empresa.

El negocio basado en la producción de productos de consumo diario suele ser más resistente durante una tormenta inflacionaria. Produce productos simples y necesarios que las personas han estado usando durante años y están acostumbrados a ellos. Es poco probable que las amas de casa renuncien a Pampers, Tampax o Always, y es poco probable que sus esposos que usan maquinillas para afeitar Gillette, estén listos para cambiar a otras marcas, especialmente cuando sus precios también están aumentando.

16.03.2023
¿Qué hará el S&P 500 después de caer a los 3400 puntos?

Los futuros sobre el índice de mercado amplio S&P 500 están resbalando cada vez más, mostrando que el intento de romper el límite superior del canal descendente a principios de febrero, aparentemente, no tuvo éxito. Y si es así, entonces es hora de considerar un plan aproximado para la caída del principal índice de referencia bursátil. En la mayoría de los casos, luego de que un instrumento financiero no logra romper un nivel importante, recibe un fuerte contraataque debido a la debilidad mostrada. Creo que en el caso de los futuros del S&P 500, esto significa un retorno lógico a la mitad del actual canal bajista en la zona de los 3400 puntos. Donde, como podemos ver, se ubica el primer nivel técnico muy fuerte. Tal caída en el índice de referencia bursátil estadounidense se correlaciona bien con la situación actual, cuando los mercados están temblando debido a la crisis bancaria en EE. UU. y Europa. Personalmente, prácticamente no tengo dudas sobre una caída a este nivel. Pero luego, las opciones demasiado polares y extremas sugieren una bifurcación en 3400 puntos.

Es posible que la situación se aclare durante la caída del mercado, pero hasta ahora lo máximo con lo que se puede contar vendiendo futuros del índice S&P 500, es su caída en el próximo mes y medio entre 12 y 14%.

19.01.2023
Top 5 líderes de crecimiento en 2022: la soja

En el verano de 2022, los futuros de soja alcanzaron su punto máximo, con un aumento de precio del 35% desde principios de año. Al analizar este instrumento, se debe tener en cuenta que la soja se usa en dos direcciones a la vez: no solo es una parte importante de la industria alimentaria (incluso se usa para alimentar el ganado), sino que también se utiliza para producir biodiesel para automóviles. En ese sentido, es muy similar al maíz, cuyos futuros también están en el mercado. Los principales impulsores de los aumentos de precios son la alta inflación, que eleva el costo de producción, la falta de fertilizantes y la incertidumbre relacionada con el clima en las regiones clave donde se cultiva la soja. En 2022, se cosecharon 163 millones de toneladas de soja en América Latina (principalmente en Brasil y Argentina), más que en los Estados Unidos, China e India. Varios brokers agrícolas esperan un nuevo aumento en la inflación de los alimentos. Se necesitan cosechas récord para satisfacer la demanda actual, mientras que un mal clima y los altos precios de la energía limitan significativamente la oferta.

26.01.2023
Top 5 perdedores de 2022: Consumo discrecional

En 2022, todo el sector de consumo discrecional, que incluye empresas que producen bienes no esenciales: automóviles, ropa, artículos de lujo, hoteles, restaurantes, etc., fue muy afectado. Cuando llegan tiempos difíciles, la gente sigue comprando comida, pero comienza a ahorrar en otras áreas. Los temores sobre la inflación y la recesión inminente provocaron el colapso del ETF XLY en casi 40% a finales de año. Sin embargo, tales reducciones a menudo brindan excelentes oportunidades de inversión, ya que es raro ver acciones de compañías icónicas como Nike, Toyota y Home Depot tan lejos de sus valores máximos. Los informes macroeconómicos recientes apuntan a que quizás los temores de una disminución en la demanda de los consumidores son demasiado pesimistas. Las ventas minoristas en EE.UU. durante la temporada navideña fueron bastante fuertes (según Mastercard, el gasto en los Estados Unidos aumentó 7.6% interanual entre el 1 de noviembre y el 24 de diciembre), y los empleadores siguen buscando nuevo personal. Tal dinámica favorece el aumento de los salarios y la preservación de la actividad de consumo.

19.01.2023
Top 5 líderes de crecimiento en 2022: el algodón

A mediados de 2022, los futuros de algodón habían subido 40%, pero para diciembre habían caído 20% por debajo de sus niveles de principios de año. El principal estímulo para el crecimiento del costo del algodón es el levantamiento gradual de la cuarentena en China, principal importador del producto. Las fábricas del país consumen alrededor de un tercio de la producción mundial de algodón. Luego siguen Bangladesh, Vietnam y Turquía. Como riesgo potencial, cabe señalar una posible disminución de la demanda de los consumidores debido a la inminente recesión mundial. Al mismo tiempo, fue el creciente interés de los compradores por la ropa lo que contribuyó al aumento de los precios del algodón en la primera mitad del año. Además, varias provincias chinas fueron cerradas como parte de la lucha contra el coronavirus, por lo que la importación de material al país se redujo a la mitad en comparación con el año pasado. Muchos temen que el aislamiento de China pueda generar un superávit de material en el mercado y provocar una caída de los precios. Sin embargo, el Departamento de Agricultura de EE.UU. no está de acuerdo y en un comunicado reciente pronostica reservas de algodón por un monto de 82.8 millones de fardos, el nivel más bajo desde la temporada 2018-2019. Además, los expertos esperan que la cosecha estadounidense disminuya en 5 millones de fardos en comparación con la temporada pasada y llegará a 12.6 millones, que no será suficiente ni para cubrir los suministros externos, ni para el consumo interno (la demanda de algodón de EE.UU. se mantiene en 18 millones). Si estas expectativas comienzan a hacerse realidad, entonces los participantes del mercado tendrán que revisar rápidamente sus estimaciones del costo de la mercancía al alza.

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Netflix Made Money on Content, Now Let Them Share It

I now see an interesting investment opportunity in purchasing some Netflix shares after Elon Musk urged his X followers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions over a controversy surrounding “Dead End: Paranormal Park” animated show and its creator. The world's largest streaming service lost up to 5% of its market caps last week soon after Tesla and X owner posted on his platform saying, “Cancel Netflix for the health of your kids”. He did it in response to an image, which accused Netflix of carrying out a transgender woke agenda. I personally have no intention of cancelling my long-standing Netflix subscription because of one show I am not going to watch or wouldn't show to my child. Besides, I don't think a huge number of subscribers would actually unsubscribe because of one show.

I want to see Nero The Assassin right now, as only one example, where the French Césars nominated Pio Marmai starred as a man who must rescue his estranged daughter from malevolent forces in XVIth century France. I am waiting for Rowan Atkinson's return with "Man Vs Baby" as a Christmas follow-up series to Man Vs Bee, as another example. And who knows, what else? And I also want to make money on my stake in further Netflix shining. Especially since its share price has not only bounced off the local low of around $1,133, but also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern near the news-given bottom and even managed to take-off recovering to $1188. The incident seems to be over, at least in the field of stock market's reaction, while Musk's X post seems more like a warning to Netflix owners not to overdo it with untimely attempts to please queer supporting audiences. In short, I believe that Netflix share will revisit its target levels of no less than $1,350, where the price action already took place in mid-summer, with this sad episode marking the end of sideways corrections of the last three months for the stock.

As for the essence of the “Dead End: Paranormal Park” story, if anyone is still interested, I have done some research. When asked what the gender colouring is there, Google's Gemini assistant gave me an answer that the main protagonist of the show, named Barney, is transgender. And, to be more precise, Barney is an out trans teen boy who finds a job as a security guard of an amusement park with a haunted house. Barney is surrounded by friends and a family who support him, which is probably O.K. but the children marketed cartoon "seeks to explore how passive toleration isn't what every young queer person needs or wants". Well, I prefer that children of the world associate either Barney or Barny name only with a famous brand of wheat flour cake bears or a character from an old cartoon. It's too bold to mix it with children-marketed shows digging into a conflict between queer people and their parents that's directly about the trans gender world to resonate with a lot of queer wish fulfilment of fantasies.

Personally, I also feel strongly that schools, kindergartens and the film industry need to stop offering all this woke agenda to children. This topic is mentioned for a certain segment of the adult audience who are interested in it, but there's no need to ruin children's psyches by forcing explanations to very young and inexperienced minds and souls on a subject that looks alien to them and that they can't understand at their age. Yes, I'm rather conservative on these issues. But I hate the very concept of the so-called "cancel culture" much more, seeing it as a substitute for genuine debate. Boycotts of public personalities or brands after they have done or said something considered objectionable is not going along with free speech society. Again, let's remember how the magnificent Johnny Depp was almost lynched for something he didn't even try to do. "Me too" stories with claims of attempted harassment, decades later and often without any evidence, after which people were lowered to the bottom of modern society. In short, they probably should find another space for queer culture promotion, but that's no reason to cancel Netflix subscription or stop trading its shares. They made money on content; let them share it with shareholders like me and you.

158
B
Google Dreams Big Again

Folks, Google dreams with all our hopes for further rise are flourishing again! Even though it's autumn outside the window... And there's a reason. This search engine and cloud data giant, well known to everyone here, there and everywhere, just formed a "round saucer", also called "round bottom" pattern, on its share price charts, a familiar sight even to simple traders, who are non-experts in equity markets. The pattern is a strong but rather rare phenomenon to appear on daily charts. It usually signifies that the price is about to attract a large crowd of new buyers and those who are eager to increase their stake in the same asset which they already own. Both large funds and many ordinary people will try their best to find free money to cram more Google into their investment portfolios. And if the price of one Google share is $250 today, then in a couple of months - or, you may say, by Christmas time - it will likely reach the next tactical target between $275 and $285. And by next spring, perhaps we can see even $300 per share. After all, we started with $200 at the end of August and reached $255 just three weeks later, by the last ten days of September. Just think about it: one can get a 10% to 20% more return on invested capital in a very short period, for just a small stake in a super-reliable business, which is currently valued by the market at no less than $3 trillion. And if one trades Google through platforms that offer financial leverage 5:1, then one's investment could easily grow by 1.5-2 times using the same size of price action! Well, even Bitcoin doesn't offer such returns right at the moment. Not to mention that, on its triumphant climbing to the sky, Bitcoin is also fluctuating wildly, sometimes up and sometimes down, sometimes doing sideways corrections for so many days, keeping crypto investors awake at night, weekdays and weekends alike. It's much easier to keep track of stock investments in megacaps, and you save much of your neurons for your better health.

However, this "round saucer" signal is visible to everyone on Google charts, so people will act immediately. The movement could significantly pick up momentum even today or maybe tomorrow. Google share could add $3-5 more soon. To avoid missing the opportunity, maybe we should Google it now?

This Monday alone, the stock gained 2% on Nasdaq, which is quite a lot for such a tech behemoth. And there was a fresh piece of news behind the move: before the weekend, it was re-confirmed that Google would build a massive $4 billion cloud data center in Arkansas. On a thousand acres of American land, creating hundreds of jobs with the support of Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and the approval of Trump's cabinet, of course, Google will get another stable source of income for itself and its shareholders, in addition to the money flow from numerous Google advertisers who pay for ad impressions and users' clicks whenever ordinary guy or girl simply search for something on the internet again.

As I detailed in my previous two articles in early September, Google share rise is being mostly accelerated by closer ties with ChatGPT maker Open AI, also its own Gemini neural network assistant, and then a federal court ruling that definitively overturned a potential threat of dividing Google into parts like Google Chrome separate business, Android separate business etc, something that antitrust regulators persistently talked about within four years of Biden's sitting in the White House.

For those who meticulously count the numbers, Google's total revenue for the last quarter alone was approximately $96.5 billion. That's nearly $12 billion more than one year ago and $22 billion more than it was in the same season in 2023. Looking at quarterly earnings per share, you can see how this key metric has doubled from $1.44 to $2.81 in less than two years: from July 2023 to April 2025. Google knows how to multiply their money. So, can we do the same using Google skills?

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Cisco Is Targeting $80

Cisco Systems (CSCO) has gained 32% since its April lows, rising to $68.69. Most of the advance occurred in May and June, followed by a period of consolidation. From a technical perspective, the rally appears ready to resume at any moment. Prices have consistently held above the midpoint of the ascending channel for the past 15 weeks, without a single break below it. This sustained strength suggests that another upward move is the more probable scenario. I plan to buy in the $68–70 range, targeting $79–81, just below the major resistance area, with a stop-loss placed at $58.

176
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ChatGPT Creators Kicked AMD through the Roof

Das ist fantastisch! They were only away a matter of minutes, perhaps no more than a quarter of an hour since this news began spreading around the wires, but AMD capitalization already soared by 36%. ChatGPT creators, OpenAI, want AMD chips for its ever-growing AI projects and even get an option to buy up to roughly 10% of AMD at the same time (160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of this great deal). AMD stock, which was lagging from the AI industry's mainstream for so many months, immediately skyrocketed from nearly $165 at last week close to well above $225 at Monday pre-market. It's their highest level since very short-lived historical peaks in March 2024. Do you remember, when this asset was trading below $100 for a short time, I always told you that everything would be fine with AMD over time? But even I could not have imagined such a meteoric rise.

So, I am going to fix the major profit in my long-running AMD stake. I have a good reason to host some banquet function with champagne and delicious food today in the evening. Although AMD might soon cost $250, I don't care what happens next. They've already covered all realistic and unrealistic price targets in this upside step. I'll consider another cheaper AMD purchase later if the opportunity arises, or maybe even an expensive one, but after the market gets used to the higher price range for AMD stock.

Here's the whole point. A multi-year deal with OpenAI is supposed to bring "tens of billions of dollars" in AMD's annual revenue. OpenAI needs even more computing power in this limitless AI developing race, so that it now acquires a part of the second largest in the world GPU chips manufacturer after Nvidia. Thus, Open AI will get hundreds of thousands GPUs, equivalent to 6 gigawatts, while also giving a very strong vote of confidence to AMD shareholders. "We view this deal as certainly transformative, not just for AMD, but for the dynamics of the industry," AMD executive vice president Forrest "no-Gump" Norrod said. Because of the ripple effect, AMD expects to receive more than $100 billion of new income over next 4 years from OpenAI and other customers. The deal with AMD will help OpenAI build enough AI infrastructure to meet its needs, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said. OpenAI would build a 1-gigawatt facility based on its forthcoming MI450 series of chips beginning next year, and it would begin to recognize revenue then.

Long before the OpenAI-AMD deal, Nvidia announced an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI that included a plan to supply at least 10 gigawatts worth of Nvidia systems. The plan included OpenAI deploying a gigawatt of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin chips in late 2026. But Altman shared his expectations of reaching as much as 250 gigawatts of computing in total by 2033. So, AMD is definitely not a kind of exclusive partner for Open AI, the deal doesn't change any of OpenAI’s ongoing computing plans, including its close partnership with Microsoft. But AMD is clearly not going to stay away from the AI progress, which many in the market were afraid of.

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