Notizie e analisi

There was a three-day delay in further rallying on Wall Street, soon after the spectacular run-up due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut pledges at Jackson Hole, and with a new all-time record for the major S&P 500 broad index. It is now approaching the next milestone of 6,500 points. The coming night August 27-28, may become one more boosting moment for the U.S. stocks, especially its AI and cloud tech segment. The reason lies, of course, in the release of long-awaited quarterly earnings from Nvidia giant. Most likely, the figures and forward guidance projections for the rest of 2025 will again be crushing for the sceptics camp to support trend-following investors like most of us. Nvidia's EPS (equity per share) earnings have never crossed the special barrier of $1 per share before, but that is what the consensus expectation is, with the previous record of $0.9 in Q4 2024 and $0.76 being released in the previous quarterly period. Quarterly revenue last year was $30 billion at the end of August, then $35 billion in November, $39.3 billion in February and $44.06 billion quarterly in May, and now the expert pool is aiming for $45.8 billion. We will see what numbers will come out today. But even if something goes a little unravelled in the specific numbers for the previous three months, so that some values in the lower or upper lines would not hit high enough compared to already inflated bets of the radical optimists among experts, any potential decline in NVDIA quotes would be very reasonable to buy more of Nvidia shares, without putting it off for a long time. In no later than a couple of days or early next week, if not immediately, new stock purchases will be an even better investment than what can be done at current prices just above $180 per share.

At the same time, the chances of showing new peak price values following the report this night appears to be much higher than the possibility of a temporary, and conditionally safe, drawdown. Therefore, it makes sense to keep positions in Nvidia open. One can’t go totally wrong here: either investors win right away, also well protected from being outside the growing-again market, or one would be exposed to a limited risk with a clear prospect of new profits just around the corner. Thus, it would also be prudent to leave some capital free for possible additional purchases at a lower price. So that if a lower price would be granted by doubting markets, there would also be enough money to grab it with.

Let's not forget that Nvidia has been the most powerful market flagship for at least two years and a half. It is the only business with more than $4 trillion in capitalization now, since it absolutely dominates the generative AI chip industry with a share of more than 80% globally. Therefore, it is the market-defining stock. Nvidia is that very feeding trough that not only gives the investment community with money directly from winnings in its own share prices, but also feeds the rest of the tech sector by being a key pillar of Wall Street growth. Thus, markets desperately needs to see Nvidia dynamics for cues.

Did I mention we can use that chance of picking up some unusually cheap shares of Eli Lilly (LLY)? We just discussed this excellent opportunity in detail in early August hot on a trail of LLY's plummet to $640. The next day there was an ultimate low around $625. Well, over the next couple of weeks the stock price recovered by as much 15%. Again, yesterday LLY gained another 5.85%, the figure similar to the famous and nearly pure gold standard, in one trading session. Pre-market trading on August 27, found LLY another full percentage point higher, at about $744 per share. All it took was brave hands, and they found a little wealth, indeed. But for all the other indecisive ones, now is not the time of sucking lemons yet. I bet, the price will continue to grow from the current $735 to at least my target range between $825 and $875, since the very reason for recent doubt, which was the not entirely convincing initial clinical trials of the new oral drug for weight loss, has been eliminated. Now everything is much better with the pill, and the expert expectations of super extra profits in the tens of billions of dollars are back again!

LLY's Orforglipron pill reportedly met its primary and secondary goals. This means, not only regulatory approvals but also global popularity is coming as soon as the end of this year. The oral weight loss medication Orforglipron is opposed to all similar kinds of medicine based on injections. And the new pill showed strong performance in testing groups of patients with both obesity and type 2 diabetes, "the higher-risk and more difficult-to-treat population", a new research note from William Blair said. Participants taking the highest dose of the drug had a significant weight loss over 72 weeks. Based on analysis of three Phase III studies, it revealed the "highest competitive advantage in diabetes" which is affecting roughly 15% of the adult population in both the US and Europe. Type 2 diabetes patients often manage multiple "comorbid conditions such as hypertension or dyslipidaemia with oral medications", which makes another advantage for Lilly’s oral formulation. "It is therefore our opinion that Orforglipron could be seamlessly incorporated into patients’ daily routines, thereby encouraging uptake," William Blair concluded in its report.

The Bank of America's securities branch hastily reiterated its Buy rating on Eli Lilly in the middle of this week. They highlighted an expected sales growth of approximately 35% in 2025, well surpassing the industry average. "We believe that orfor [Orforglipron] could represent a double-digit billion dollar opportunity," Truist Securities said in a client's note on Tuesday. August 26. I wonder where all those smart guys were when a bunch of brave souls were withstanding bearish headwinds on the last frontier about $100 per share below than the currently quite comfortable price levels? Then, you see, they turned away from the white and blue pill, but now they are ready to swallow it at a much higher price. Anyway, we're all in the same bullish boat now.

Cardano (ADA) is losing 6.3% to $0.8650, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.8% to $111,041. The token reached resistance at $1.0000 in mid-August, briefly rising to $1.0194 before slipping in line with a wider market correction that pulled prices back to $0.8000. Investors are now focused on Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming Q2 2025 earnings report, as the $4 trillion market giant has the potential to influence sentiment across all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. A disappointing release could pressure ADA back toward $0.8000, while strong results may provide the catalyst for a renewed push toward the $1.0000 level.

Maker (MKR) is down 1.0% this week to $1,501, performing slightly better than Bitcoin (BTC), which slipped 2.2% to $110,360. The token is under pressure from the broader negative crypto sentiment but remains supported ahead of its rebranding to SKY on September 15.

Binance has announced it will delist all MKR spot trading pairs by that date, halt MKR deposits and withdrawals, and automatically convert all tokens into SKY at a 1:24,000 ratio. Following the migration, SKY will fully replace MKR across trading markets.

Technically, MKR is holding at the key $1,500 support, though trading has slipped below its trend support. The token is pressured by the overall negative crypto market sentiment.